부시 행정부의 이라크 증파결정：부시대통령의 신념과 관료정치를 중심으로
The Bush Administration’s Decision to Increase U.S. Troops in Iraq: With Focus on President Bush’s Belief System and Bush Administration’s Bureaucratic Politics
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초록
본 연구의 목적은 2007년 부시 행정부의 이라크 증파결정의 원인과 배경을 대통령의 신념체계 및 관료정치의 차원에서 분석하는 것이다. 첫째, 이 글은 대통령 신념체계의 차원에서 부시 대통령의 선과 악의 이분법적인 시각, 기독교 신앙, 기독교 종말론이 부시 대통령에게 이라크 전쟁에서의 승리쟁취라는 강한 소명 의식을 심어주었고, 소극적인 철군이 아닌 적극적인 증파를 선택하도록 하였다고 주장한다. 둘째, 관료정치와 관련하여 이 글은 제2기 부시 행정부 당시 해들리 국가안보보좌관과 설리번 국가안보 부보좌관의 영향력이 강해지면서 이들의 이라크 증파에 대한 지지와 설득이 부시 대통령이 증파결정을 내릴 수 있도록 영향을 미쳤다고 주장한다. 전반적으로 이라크 증파결정은 종합적인 대안을 고려한 합리적인 방식으로 이루어졌다기보다는 부시 대통령 개인의 신념체계와 부시 2기 행정부 측근의 정세판단에 기인한 바 크다고 보인다.
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to examine reasons and backgrounds of Bush administration’s decision to increase U.S. troops in Iraq in terms of the President’s belief system and the bureaucratic politics within the Bush Administration. First, President Bush’s belief system, which was dictated by a dichotomous view of good and evil, Christian belief, and Christian eschatology, made him want to achieve an assured victory in Iraq and eventually led him to decide to increase the level of the U.S. military forces in Iraq rather than a passive withdrawal strategy. Second, the bureaucratic politics within the Bush Administration shows that National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and Deputy National Security Advisor Meghan O’Sullivan became influential during the Bush’s second term, and that their support for a surge plan influenced Bush to decide to increase troops in Iraq. Accordingly, this article concludes that President Bush’s belief system and the bureaucratic politics were the two major factors in the military surge decision.
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