합천댐 고정식 및 추적식 수상태양광 발전시스템의 발전 잠재량 평가 및 검증
Evaluation and Validation of Photovoltaic Potential from Fixed and Tracking Floating Photovoltaic System in Hapcheon Dam
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초록
본 연구에서는 합천댐 제2 고정식 수상태양광 발전시스템의 발전 잠재량을 예측하고, 이를 실측값과 비교검증하였다. 또한, 고정식과 추적식 수상태양광 발전시스템의 실측 발전량을 비교분석하였다. 이를 위해 System Advisor Model 소프트웨어를 이용하였고, 연구지역의 기상특성과 시스템설계 사양을 반영하였다. 그 결과, 고정식 태양광발전시스템의 월별 발전(잠재)량의 경우 예측값보다 실측값이 대체로 높게 나타났다. 월별 발전량의 실측값과 예측값의 차이로부터 계산되는 오차분석 결과, 월평균절대오차비율은 약 14%로 산정되었다. 육상에 비해 수상에서의 발전량이 약5~10% 높다는 문헌 결과들을 본 연구에 적용할 경우, 월평균절대오차비율은 약 8%, 연간 발전량예측오차율은 약 2% 수준인 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 합천댐의 고정식과 추적식 수상태양광 발전시스템의 실측 발전량을 비교분석한 결과, 추적식이 고정식에 비해 다소 높은 월별 발전량을 보였다. 향후 수상태양광 발전시스템용 발전량 예측 알고리즘이 개발되어 예측 정확도가 높아진다면재생에너지 발전량 예측 제도 등에도 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대한다.
Abstract
In this study, the photovoltaic (PV) potential was predicted and verified with the observed values of the fixed floating PV system at Hapcheon Dam. The observed power outputs from the fixed and tracking floating PV systems were compared. The System Advisor Model software was used to analyze the meteorological data of the study area and system design specifications. For the fixed PV system, the observed values were generally higher than the predicted values. Based on the difference between the observed and predicted values of monthly power output, the calculated mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 14%. According to a previous study in which the amount of power output on the water was approximately 5%–10% higher than that on the on-land system, the monthly MAPE would be approximately 11%, and the annual error rate would be approximately 2%. In addition, the tracking PV system showed a slightly higher monthly power output than the fixed PV. It is expected that the proposed system will yield improved accuracy in the renewable energy output prediction system with the power output prediction algorithm for floating PV systems.
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