불확실성을 고려한 농업용 저수지 수상태양광의사업타당성 변화에 따른 발전잠재량 분석
Potential Power Analysis of Floating Photovoltaics on Agricultural Reservoirs Based on Feasibility Considering Uncertain Factors
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초록
The share of solar energy in South Korea’s renewable energy mix increased from 15% to 53% between 2017 and 2022. However 53% of solarinstallations are located in forested areas, raising concerns about deforestation. Given that forests cover 63% of the country’s land, the expansion ofland-based photovoltaics is limited. Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems on agricultural reservoirs have emerged as a viable alternative. This studyevaluates the feasibility and potential of FPV by incorporating technical, economic, and policy uncertainties. First power generation potential wasestimated using regional average solar radiation and reservoir surface area under a baseline scenario. Second, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted,considering financial factors such as the renewable energy certificate (REC), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and system marginal price (SMP). The impact of uncertainties, including module efficiency, LCOE, and solar radiation variation, on power generation potential was assessed. Additionally,policy variables such as SMP, installation ratios, and project durations were analyzed. Results indicate that module efficiency had the most significantimpact on power generation potential, followed by LCOE. Policy adjustments, including increased installation ratios and extended project durations, ledto more than a twofold increase in feasible power generation across all regions. These findings highlight FPV systems on agricultural reservoirs as asustainable and effective alternative for expanding solar energy capacity in South Korea.
Abstract
The share of solar energy in South Korea’s renewable energy mix increased from 15% to 53% between 2017 and 2022. However 53% of solarinstallations are located in forested areas, raising concerns about deforestation. Given that forests cover 63% of the country’s land, the expansion ofland-based photovoltaics is limited. Floating photovoltaic (FPV) systems on agricultural reservoirs have emerged as a viable alternative. This studyevaluates the feasibility and potential of FPV by incorporating technical, economic, and policy uncertainties. First power generation potential wasestimated using regional average solar radiation and reservoir surface area under a baseline scenario. Second, a cost-benefit analysis was conducted,considering financial factors such as the renewable energy certificate (REC), levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and system marginal price (SMP). The impact of uncertainties, including module efficiency, LCOE, and solar radiation variation, on power generation potential was assessed. Additionally,policy variables such as SMP, installation ratios, and project durations were analyzed. Results indicate that module efficiency had the most significantimpact on power generation potential, followed by LCOE. Policy adjustments, including increased installation ratios and extended project durations, ledto more than a twofold increase in feasible power generation across all regions. These findings highlight FPV systems on agricultural reservoirs as asustainable and effective alternative for expanding solar energy capacity in South Korea.