북서태평양 태풍의 여름과 가을철 예측시스템 개발과 한반도 영향 태풍 예측에 활용
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity in Summer and Autumn over the Western North Pacific and Its Application to Influencing Tropical Cyclones to the Korean Peninsula
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참고문헌
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초록
A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the westernNorth Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea MeteorologicalAdministration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracksaveraged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC predictionmodels for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on thecurrent operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedurereadily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The usercan apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in considerationof their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.
Abstract
A long-range prediction system of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the westernNorth Pacific (WNP) has been operated in the National Typhoon Center of the Korea MeteorologicalAdministration since 2012. The model forecasts the spatial distribution of TC tracksaveraged over the period June~October. In this study, we separately developed TC predictionmodels for summer (June~August) and autumn (September~November) period based on thecurrent operating system. To perform the three-month WNP TC activity prediction procedurereadily, we modified the shell script calling in environmental variables automatically. The usercan apply the model by changing these environmental variables of namelist parameter in considerationof their objective. The validations for the two seasons demonstrate the great performance of predictions showing high pattern correlations between hindcast and observed TC activity. In addition, we developed a post-processing script for deducing TC activity in the Korea emergency zone from final forecasting map and its skill is discussed.
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