기후예측시스템(GloSea5) 열대성저기압 계절예측 특성
Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Storms using GloSea5 Hindcast
0
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Seasonal predictability and variability of tropical storms (TCs) simulated in the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is assessed in Northern Hemisphere in 1996~2009. In the KMA, the GloSea5-Global Atmosphere version 3.0 (GloSea5-GA3) that was previously operated was switched to the GloSea5-Global Coupled version 2.0 (GloSea5-GC2) with data assimilation system since May 2016. In this study, frequency, track, duration, and strength of the TCs in the North Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic regions derived from the GloSea5-GC2 and GloSea5-GA3 are examined against the best track data during the research period. In general, the GloSea5 shows a good skill for the prediction of seasonally averaged number of the TCs in the Eastern and Western Pacific regions, but underestimation of those in the North Atlantic region. Both the GloSea5-GA3 and GC2 are not able to predict the recurvature of the TCs in the North Western Pacific Ocean (NWPO), which implies that there is no skill for the prediction of landfalls in the Korean peninsula. The GloSea5-GC2 has higher skills for predictability and variability of the TCs than the GloSea5-GA3, although continuous improvements in the operational system for seasonal forecast are still necessary to simulate TCs more realistically in the future.
Abstract
Seasonal predictability and variability of tropical storms (TCs) simulated in the Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5 (GloSea5) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) is assessed in Northern Hemisphere in 1996~2009. In the KMA, the GloSea5-Global Atmosphere version 3.0 (GloSea5-GA3) that was previously operated was switched to the GloSea5-Global Coupled version 2.0 (GloSea5-GC2) with data assimilation system since May 2016. In this study, frequency, track, duration, and strength of the TCs in the North Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and North Atlantic regions derived from the GloSea5-GC2 and GloSea5-GA3 are examined against the best track data during the research period. In general, the GloSea5 shows a good skill for the prediction of seasonally averaged number of the TCs in the Eastern and Western Pacific regions, but underestimation of those in the North Atlantic region. Both the GloSea5-GA3 and GC2 are not able to predict the recurvature of the TCs in the North Western Pacific Ocean (NWPO), which implies that there is no skill for the prediction of landfalls in the Korean peninsula. The GloSea5-GC2 has higher skills for predictability and variability of the TCs than the GloSea5-GA3, although continuous improvements in the operational system for seasonal forecast are still necessary to simulate TCs more realistically in the future.
참고문헌 (52)
- Bell, R., "Simulation of the global ENSO-tropical cyclone teleconnection by a high-resolution coupled general circulation model", J. Climate, 27, pp.6404~6422 (2014)[DOI]
- Bengtsson, L., "How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate?", Tellus A, 59, pp.539~561 (2007)[DOI]
- Best, M. J., "The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes", Geosci. Model Dev, 4, pp.677~699 (2011)[DOI]
- Byun, H. -R., "Comparative analysis of the drought diagnosis and related systems", J. Korean Soc. Hazard Mitig, 9, pp.7~18 (2009)
- Camargo, S. J., "Global and regional aspects of tropical cyclone activity in the CMIP5 models", J. Climate, 26, pp.9880~9902 (2013)[DOI]
- Camargo, S. J., "Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones", pp.325~360 (2010), World Scientific
- Camp, J., "Seasonal forecasting of tropical storms using the Met Office GloSea5 seasonal forecast system", Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 141, pp.2206~2219 (2015)[DOI]
- Chan, J. C. L., "Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea", Wea. Forecast, 13, pp.997~1004 (1998)[DOI]
- Chan, J. C. L., "Improvements in the seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific", Wea. Forecast, 16, pp.491~498 (2001)[DOI]
- Davies, T., "A new dynamical core for the Met Office’s global and regional modelling of the atmosphere", Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 131, pp.1759~1782 (2005)[DOI]
- Finan, C., "CFSv2-based hybrid dynamical-statistical model for week 3 to 4forecast of Atlantic", Pacific tropical storm activity, 2017, 49~52
- Gray, W. M., "Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part II: Forecasting its variability", Mon. Wea. Rev, 112, pp.1669~1683 (1984)[DOI]
- Ho, C. -H., "Technical note on a track-pattern-based model for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific", Adv. Atmos. Sci, 30, pp.1260~1274 (2013)[DOI]
- Hodges, K. I., "Feature tracking on the unit sphere", Mon. Wea. Rev, 123, pp.3458~3465 (1995)[DOI]
- Hodges, K. I., "Spherical nonparametric estimators applied to the UGAMP model integration for AMIP", Mon. Wea. Rev, 124, pp.2914~2932 (1996)[DOI]
- Hodges, K. I., "Adaptive constraints for feature tracking", Mon. Wea. Rev, 127, pp.1362~1373 (1999)[DOI]
- Hunke, E. C., "CICE: The sea ice model documentation and software user’s manual, version 4.1", 76~ (2010)
- Janiga, M. A., "Subseasonal forecasts of convectively coupled equatorial waves and the MJO : activity and predictive skill", Mon. Wea. Rev, 146, pp.2337~2360 (2018)[DOI]
- Kim, H. -S., "Tropical cyclone simulation and response to CO2 doubling in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model", J. Climate, 27, pp.8034~8054 (2014)[DOI]
- Kim, H. -S., "Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific", J. Climate, 25, pp.4660~4678 (2012)[DOI]
- Landsea, C. W., "Atlantic hurricane database uncertainty and presentation of a new database format", Mon. Wea. Rev, 141, pp.3576~3592 (2013)[DOI]
- LaRow, T. E., "Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting", forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets, 2010, pp.37, L02804~
- Lee, C. -Y., "Subseasonal tropical cyclone genesis prediction and MJO in the S2S dataset", Wea. Forecasting, 33, pp.967~988 (2018)[DOI]
- 이상민, "2014년 계절예측시스템과 중기예측모델의 예측성능 비교 및 검증", 대기, 26(1), pp.59~72 (2016), 한국기상학회
- 임소민, "GloSea5의 과거기후 모의자료에서 나타난 El Niño와 관련된 동아시아 강수 및 기온 예측성능", 대기, 28(1), pp.37~51 (2018), 한국기상학회[DOI]
- MacLachlan, C., "Global Seasonal Forecast System version 5(GloSea5) : A high-resolution seasonal forecast system", Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc, 141, pp.1072~1084 (2014)[DOI]
- NEMO ocean engine, "Madec, G.", Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, 300~, pp.Note du Pôle de modélisation No. 27 (2008)
- Megann, A., "GO 5.0: the joint NERC-Met Office NEMO global ocean model for use in coupled and forced applications", Geosci. Model Dev, 7, pp.1069~1092 (2014)[DOI]
- The new ECMWF seasonal forecast system (system 4), "Molteni, F.", ECMWF, 49~, pp.ECMWF Tech. Memo. No. 656 (2011)
- Nicholls, N., "A possible method for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the Australian region", Mon. Wea. Rev, 107, pp.1221~1224 (1979)[DOI]
- Pan, L. L., "Thunderstorms enhance tropospheric ozone by wrapping and shedding stratospheric air", Geophy. Res. Lett, 41, pp.7785~7790 (2015)[DOI]
- Pielke, R. A., Jr, "Hurricanes:Their Nature and Impacts on Society", pp.279~ (1997), Wiley
- Rae, J. G. L., "Development of Global Sea Ice 6.0 CICE configuration for the Met Office Global Coupled Model", Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss, 8, pp.2529~2554 (2015)[DOI]
- Schreck, C. J., "A global view of equatorial waves and tropical cyclogenesis", Mon. Wea. Rev, 140, pp.774~788 (2012)[DOI]
- Shaevitz, D. A., "Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate", J. Adv. Model. Earth Sy, 6, pp.1154~1172 (2014)[DOI]
- Southern, R. L., "The global socio-economic impact of tropical cyclones", Aust. Meteor. Mag, 27, pp.175~195 (1979)
- Strachan, J., "Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs : The role of model resolution", J. Climate, 26, pp.133~152 (2013)[DOI]
- Valcke, S, "The PRISM Software Framework and the OASIS Coupler", Proc. The 18 Annual BMRC Modelling Workshop, Melbourne (2006)
- Vecchi, G. A., "Next season’s hurricanes", Science, 343, pp.618~619 (2014)[DOI]
- Vecchi, G. A., "On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity", J. Climate, 27, pp.7994~8016 (2014)[DOI]
- Villarini, G., "Multiseason lead forecast of the North Atlantic power dissipation index(PDI)and accumulated cyclone energy(ACE)", J. Climate, 26, pp.3631~3643 (2013)[DOI]
- Vitart, F., "Dynamically-based seasonal forecasts of Atlantic tropical storm activity issued in June by EUROSIP", Geophys. Res. Lett, 34, pp.L16815~ (2007)[DOI]
- Vitart, F., "The Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project(S2S)and the prediction of extreme events", Clim. Atmos. Sci, 1, pp.3~ (2018)[DOI]
- Walters, D., "The Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0", 6.1 and JULES Global Land 6.0, Geosci. Model Dev, pp.2017, 10[DOI]
- Wang, H., "How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones associated with ENSO?", J. Climate, 27, pp.5673~5692 (2014)[DOI]
- Wang, Z., "Predictive skill and predictability of North Atlantic tropical cyclogenesis in different synoptic flow regimes", J. Atmos. Sci, 75, pp.361~378 (2018)
- Wheeler, M., "Convectively coupled equatorial waves : Analysis of clouds and temperature in the wavenumber-frequency domain", J. Atmos. Sci, 56, pp.374~399 (1999)
- Williams, K. D., "The Met Office Global Coupled model 2.0 (GC2) configuration", Geosci. Model Dev, 8, pp.1509~1524 (2015)[DOI]
- Yamaguchi, M., "Were one-month global ensembles capable of predicting inactive TC activity in the western North Pacific basin during early 2016?", Proc. 2016 Fall Meeting of Meteorological Society of Japan (2016)
- Zhang, G., "North Atlantic Rossby wave breaking during the hurricane season : association with tropical and extratropical variability", J. Climate, 32, pp.3777~3801 (2019)[DOI]
- Zhang, G., "Characteristics and impacts of extratropical Rossby wave breaking during the Atlantic hurricane season", J. Climate, 30, pp.2363~2379 (2017)[DOI]
- Zhao, M., "Retrospective forecasts of the hurricane season using a global atmospheric model assuming persistence of SST anomalies", Mon. Wea. Rev, 138, pp.3858~3868 (2010)[DOI]