고흥군의 수산물 수출행태분석
An Analysis on Fishery Export Behaviors of Goheunggun
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초록
The main purpose of this paper is to identify the economic variables which affect the fishery export of Goheung. This paper hence is a model for the fishery export demand by providing the influence that exchange rate, industrial production and fishery prices have on demand. The test results shows that the level variables are not stationary, but the differentiated data is. The long memory test using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Average indicates that all of the fractionally differenced coefficients are less than 0.5. Johansen's multi co-integration procedure also succeeds in rejecting the null hypothesis of zero co-integrating vector. The results of this paper reveal that the exchange rate and fishery prices perform a significant role, while the income variable fail to have much effect on the exports of fishery. This paper also employs historical decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how a movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly the fluctuations of one variable can be transmitted to another. The historical decompositions of fishery export show that three variables actually can move the amount of export, indicating that three variables are appropriate for estimating and forecasting the export changes of fishery. Also the test indicates that exports respond positively to the shock in income and exchange rate, but the shock in exchange rate is higher and decays faster than that of the income.
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to identify the economic variables which affect the fishery export of Goheung. This paper hence is a model for the fishery export demand by providing the influence that exchange rate, industrial production and fishery prices have on demand. The test results shows that the level variables are not stationary, but the differentiated data is. The long memory test using Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Average indicates that all of the fractionally differenced coefficients are less than 0.5. Johansen's multi co-integration procedure also succeeds in rejecting the null hypothesis of zero co-integrating vector. The results of this paper reveal that the exchange rate and fishery prices perform a significant role, while the income variable fail to have much effect on the exports of fishery. This paper also employs historical decompositions and impulse response functions, both of which have now been widely used to examine how a movement in one variable can be explained by innovations in different variables and how rapidly the fluctuations of one variable can be transmitted to another. The historical decompositions of fishery export show that three variables actually can move the amount of export, indicating that three variables are appropriate for estimating and forecasting the export changes of fishery. Also the test indicates that exports respond positively to the shock in income and exchange rate, but the shock in exchange rate is higher and decays faster than that of the income.
참고문헌 (20)
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