Strategic Challengers and the Incumbency Advantage
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The existing formal studies on the incumbency advantage do not take strategic choices of electoral challengers into account. We develop a dynamic model of infinitely repeated electoral competition that incorporates strategic challengers and shows the endogenous emergence of the incumbency advantage. Politicians’ characteristics are of two dimensions, policy and quality. We assume that policy preferences are heterogeneous among players but everyone prefers to elect a high quality candidate. Candidates’ types which are defined by policy preference and quality are private information but by observing the incumbent’s policy choice voters know the incumbent’s type while nothing is revealed about a challenger. With a strategic challenger we find an equilibrium in which only high quality challengers campaign to distinguish themselves from low quality challengers and win the election. However, we still find a strong incumbency advantage accruing from voters’ ignorance about the challenger’s policy preference relative to their knowledge of the incumbent.
Abstract
The existing formal studies on the incumbency advantage do not take strategic choices of electoral challengers into account. We develop a dynamic model of infinitely repeated electoral competition that incorporates strategic challengers and shows the endogenous emergence of the incumbency advantage. Politicians’ characteristics are of two dimensions, policy and quality. We assume that policy preferences are heterogeneous among players but everyone prefers to elect a high quality candidate. Candidates’ types which are defined by policy preference and quality are private information but by observing the incumbent’s policy choice voters know the incumbent’s type while nothing is revealed about a challenger. With a strategic challenger we find an equilibrium in which only high quality challengers campaign to distinguish themselves from low quality challengers and win the election. However, we still find a strong incumbency advantage accruing from voters’ ignorance about the challenger’s policy preference relative to their knowledge of the incumbent.
참고문헌 (48)
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