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한국의 자연실업률 추정

Korea's Natural Rate of Unemployment: Estimates and Assessment

신석하
한국개발연구원 (Korea Development Institute)|2004.12|KDI Journal of Economic Policy|제26권 제2호|pp. 3-62

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주제분류경제학

초록

Abstract

This paper estimates Korea's natural rate of unemployment using various estimation methods such as pure time-series methods, reduced-form methods, and structural form methods, with discussion about relative advantages and disadvantages of each estimation method. This paper also provides the confidence interval of the estimated natural rate of unemployment by the Monte Carlo integration method.Though multivariate unobserved component model exhibits better performance in many aspects than other estimation methods, awareness should be raised for a potential misspecification problem of a multivariate unobserved component model. Considering that each method has its own advantages and disadvantages, it is recommended to make an inference on the natural rate of unemployment based on common results among various methods.Korea's natural rate of unemployment was estimated to be around 3.8~4.0% on average in the period of 1979:Ⅰ~1987:Ⅳ, and to decline to 2.5~2.9% in the period of 1988:Ⅰ～1997:Ⅳ. During the Asian crisis, it is estimated to peak at near 4.8% and to have been on a downward trend since then.

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관련 논문AI추천

韓國의 犧牲率 推定 : 非線型的 接近許鉉承한국경제학회 · 경제학연구2002 · 제50권 제3호한국의 자연실업률 추정 및 유용성 평가문소상한국은행 · 경제분석2003 · 제9권 제3호犧牲比率의 構造的 推定 : 韓國의 경우孫榮基, 金俊源한국경제학회 · 경제학연구2002 · 제50권 제2호Macroeconomic Shocks and Dynamics of Labor Markets in Korea김태봉, 이한규한국경제학회 · The Korean Economic Review2016 · 제32권 제1호Reassessing the Inflows and Outflows of Unemployment in Korea김지운, 한종석한국경제학회 · The Korean Economic Review2019 · 제35권 제1호Estimation the Natural Output Korea: A Bayesian DSGE Approach황영진한국개발연구원 · KDI Journal of Economic Policy2009 · 제31권 제1호

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