Strategic Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific Theater: A New Nuclear Arms Race?

Stephen Blank

doi:10.22883/kjda.2008.20.1.003

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Strategic Rivalry in the Asia-Pacific Theater: A New Nuclear Arms Race?

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While the progress to date on denuclearizing North Korea is encouraging, proclaiming the end of nuclear threats in Northeast Asia is premature. First, North Korea has lately been having second thoughts with regard to full disclosure of its nuclear holdings. Second, and more seriously, the deterioration of Russo- American relations over nuclear issues is not confined to a strictly European agenda. Issues arising out of the Bush administration’s nuclear strategy that seem to expand the parameters for first-strike use by America, the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, and missile defenses in Asia in the context of revivified U.S. alliances in Asia have all appeared on the agenda and could lead to negative consequences for Asian security. Two potential consequences in particular could emerge. One could be a nuclear arms race between Moscow and Washington, while another could see further movement toward the consolidation of a genuine Sino-Russian bloc in opposition to what Moscow and Beijing both see as a consolidation of such a bloc around missile defenses and the strengthening of the U.S. alliance system in Asia.

Abstract

While the progress to date on denuclearizing North Korea is encouraging, proclaiming the end of nuclear threats in Northeast Asia is premature. First, North Korea has lately been having second thoughts with regard to full disclosure of its nuclear holdings. Second, and more seriously, the deterioration of Russo- American relations over nuclear issues is not confined to a strictly European agenda. Issues arising out of the Bush administration’s nuclear strategy that seem to expand the parameters for first-strike use by America, the future of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty, and missile defenses in Asia in the context of revivified U.S. alliances in Asia have all appeared on the agenda and could lead to negative consequences for Asian security. Two potential consequences in particular could emerge. One could be a nuclear arms race between Moscow and Washington, while another could see further movement toward the consolidation of a genuine Sino-Russian bloc in opposition to what Moscow and Beijing both see as a consolidation of such a bloc around missile defenses and the strengthening of the U.S. alliance system in Asia.

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