본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

규모(Scale) 및 파급(Spillover)효과 관련학습곡선 메타연구

Meta Study for Learning Curve with Scale and Spillover Effects

0

조회

0

다운로드

4

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

초록

본 연구에서는 비용감소 메커니즘의 작동 요인으로 학습(Learning), 규모(Scale), 파급(Spillover)효과 간 관계를 메타분석을 통해 알아보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우선, 학습곡선의 개념을 간략하게 정리하고, 연구흐름을 살펴보았다. 또한 학습(Learning), 규모(Scale), 파급(Spillover)효과의 기본 개념 및 분류를 통해 관련 이론을 정리하였다. 그리고 사례연구로 태양광, 풍력, 반도체, 원자력, 조선 산업 관련 26개 논문을 선택하여 메타분석 하고, 시사점을 도출하였다. 메타분석 결과, 1) 원자력 및 조선 산업을 제외한 태양광, 풍력, 반도체 산업에서 학습효과가 규모 및 파급효과 보다 상대적으로 크고, 2) 태양광-반도체 산업간 유사성이 존재하며, 3) 태양광 산업이 모든 효과 측면에서 풍력산업보다 큰 것으로 나타났다.

Abstract

In this study, trying to figuring out the relationship between the ‘Learning’, ‘Scale’, and ‘Spillover’ effects which are working as the factors to operate in the cost reduction mechanism, through meta-analysis. For this, first, briefly summarized the concept of a learning curve, and looked at the research trends. Also outlined the related theories of ‘Learning’, ‘Scale’, and ‘Spillover’ through the basic concepts and classifications of the effects. For a case study, we select 26 papers of ‘PV’, ‘Wind’, ‘Semiconductor’, ‘Nuclear’, and ‘Shipbuilding’ to draw implications. With the results, 1) the learning outcomes in all industries except for the nuclear and shipbuilding is larger than the other effects of the size and impact, 2) ‘PV-Semiconductor’ combination indicates similarities in the size and order, 3) PV shows better outcomes than Wind in all aspects.

참고문헌 (87)

  1. 오수민, "학습곡선 이론의 체계적 고찰: 규모효과와 유출효과를 중심으로", 한국신·재생에너지 2014 추계학술대회 초록집, 47 (2014)
  2. 반도체산업의 구조·행태·성과 -학습곡선과 가격설정을중심으로-, "윤충한", 정보통신정책연구원, ~ (1997)
  3. 장한수, "에너지기술의 학습 효과에 대한 이론적 고찰", 에너지공학, 15(4), pp.209~228 (2006), 한국에너지공학회
  4. Alchian, A., "Reliability of Progress Curves in Airframe Production", Econometrica, 31(4), pp.679~693 (1963)
  5. Argote, L, "Learning Curves in Manufacturing", Science, 247, pp.920~924 (1990)
  6. Arrow, K. J., "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing", The Review of Economic Studies, 29(3), pp.155~173 (1962)
  7. Asher, H., "Cost-Quantity Relationships in the Airframe Industry" (1956), The RAND Corporation
  8. Badiru, A. B., "Manufacturing Cost Estimation: A Multivariate Learning Curve Approach", Journal of Manufacturing System, 10(6), pp.431~441 (1991)
  9. Badiru, A. B., "Computational Survey of Univariate and Multivariate Learning Curve Models", IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 39(2), pp.176~188 (1992)
  10. Baloff, N., "Extension of the L earning Curve-Some Empiric al Results", Operational Research Quarterly, 22(4), pp.329~340 (1971)
  11. Berglund, C., "Modeling technical change in energy system analysis: analyzing the introduction of learning-by-doing inbottom-up energy models", Energy Policy, 34, pp.1344~1356
  12. Berry, D., "Inno vation and the pric e of wind energy in the US", Energy Policy, 37, pp.4493~4499 (2009)
  13. Blazek, D, "The impact of knowledge accumulation and geographical spillovers on productivity and efficiency:The case of U. S. shipbuilding during WWII", Economic Modelling, 27, pp.1484~1497 (2010)
  14. Perspective on Experience, "Boston Consulting Group", ~ (1972)
  15. Buonanno, P., "Endogenous induced technical change and the costs of Kyoto", Resource and Energy Economics, 25, pp.11~34 (2003)
  16. Cantor, R., "The Economics of Nuclear Power:Further Evidence on Learning, Economies of Scale and Regulatory Effects", Resources and Energy, 10, pp.315~335 (1988)
  17. Carr, G. W., "Peacetime cost estimating requires new learning curves", Aviation, 45 (1946)
  18. Chen, X., "Explaining the r eductions in US c orn ethanol processing costs : Testing competing hypotheses", Energy Policy, 44, pp.153~159 (2012)
  19. Chen, X., "Explaining the reductions in Brazilian sugarcane ethanol production costs: importance of technological change", GCB Bioenergy, pp.1~11 (2014)
  20. Chung, S., "The l earning curve and the yield f actor: the case of Korea's semiconductor industry", Applied Economics, 33(4), pp.473~483 (2001)
  21. Colpier, U. C., "The economics of the combined cycle gas turbine-an experience curve analysis", Energy Policy, 30, pp.309~316 (2002)
  22. de Wit, M, "Competition between biofuels: Modeling technological learning and cost reductions over time", Biomass and Bioenergy, 34, pp.203~217 (2010)
  23. de Wit, M., "Learning in dedicated wood production systems : Past trends, future outlook and implications for bioenergy", Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 19, pp.417~432 (2013)
  24. Dick, A. R., "Learning by Doing and Dumping in the Semiconductor Industry", Journal of Law and Economics, 34(1), pp.133~159 (1991)
  25. Dutton, J. M, "Treating Progress Functions as a Managerial Opportunity", The Academy of Management Review, 9(2), pp.235~247 (1984)
  26. Ek K, "Technology learning in the presence of public R&D : The case of European wind power", Ecological Economics, 69, pp.2356~2362 (2010)
  27. Gruber, H., "The learning curve in the production of semiconductor memory chips", Applied Economics, 24(8), pp.885~894 (1992)
  28. Gruber, H., "Learning by Doing and Spillovers : Further Evidence for the Semiconductor Industry", Review of Industrial Organization, 13, pp.697~711 (1998)
  29. Hansen, J. D., "The Es tablishment of the Danish Windmill Industry-Was It Worthwhile?", Review of World Economics, 139(2), pp.324~347 (2003)
  30. Hall, G., "The Experience Curve from the Economist’s Perspective", Strategic Management Journal, 6, pp.197~212 (1985)
  31. Hartley, K., "The Learning Curve and Its Application to the Aircraft Industry", The Journal of Industrial Economics, 13(2), pp.122~128 (1965)
  32. Hettinga, W. G., "Understanding the reductions in US corn ethanol production costs : An experience curve approach", Energy Policy, 37, pp.190~203 (2009)
  33. Hirsch, W. Z., "Manuf acturing Progress Functions", The R eview of Economics and Statistics, 34(2), pp.143~155 (1952)
  34. Hirsch, W. Z., "Firm Progress Ratios", Econometrica, 24(2), pp.136~143 (1956)
  35. Ibenholt, K., "Explaining learning curves for wind power", Energy Policy, 30, pp.1181~1189 (2002)
  36. Irwin, D, "Learning-by-Doing Spillovers in the Semiconductor Industry", Journal of Political Economy, 102(6), pp.1200~1227 (1994)
  37. Isoard, S, "Technical change dynamics : evidence from the emerging renewable energy technologies", Energy Economics, 23, pp.619~636 (2001)
  38. Jamasb, T., "Technical Change Theory and Learning Curves : Patterns of Progress in Electricity Generation Technologies", The Energy Journal, 28(3), pp.51~71 (2007)
  39. Junginger, M., "Global experience curves for wind farms", Energy Policy, 33, pp.133~150 (2005)
  40. Junginger, M., "Technological learning and cost reductions in wood fuel supply chains in Sweden", Biomass and Bioenergy, 29, pp.399~418 (2005)
  41. Junginger, M, "Technological learning in bioenergy systems", Energy Policy, 34, pp.4024~4041 (2006)
  42. Kahouli-Brahmi, S., "Technological learning in energy-environmenteconomy modelling : A surv ey", Energy Policy, 36, pp.138~162 (2008)
  43. Kahouli, S., "Effects of technological learning and uranium price on nuclear cost : Preliminary insights from a multiple factors learning curve and uranium market modeling", Energy Economics, 33, pp.840~852 (2011)
  44. Kamp, L. M., "Notions on learning applied to wind turbine development in the Netherlands and Denmark", Energy Policy, 32, pp.1625~1637 (2004)
  45. Keller, W., "International Technology Diffusion", Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), pp.752~782 (2004)
  46. Klaassen, G., "The impact of R&D on inno vation for wind energy in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom", Ecological Economics, 54, pp.227~240 (2005)
  47. Kouvaritakis N., "Modelling energy technology dynamics : methodology for adaptive expectations models with learning by doing and learning by searching", International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 14, pp.104~115 (2000)
  48. Kusunoki, T, "Development of an Energy-Economic Model with Endogenous Technological Progress and Feasibility Study of CCS Systems", Heat Transfer-Asian Research, 43(4), pp.332~351 (2014)
  49. Liberman, M. B., "The Learning Curve and Pricing in the Chemical Processing Industries", The RAND Journal of Economics, 15(2), pp.213~228 (1984)
  50. Lindman, A., "Wind power learning rates : A conceptual review and meta-analysis", Energy Economics, 34, pp.754~761 (2012)
  51. Malerba, F., "Learning by Firms and Incremental Technical Change", The Economic Journal, 102(413), pp.845~859 (1992)
  52. Martinsen, T., "Technology learning in a small open economy-The systems, modelling and exploiting the learning effect", Energy Policy, 39, pp.2361~2372 (2011)
  53. McCabe, M. J., "Principals, Agents, and the Learning Curve : The Case of Steam-Electric Power Plant Design and Construction", The Journal of Industrial Economics, 44(4), pp.357~375 (1996)
  54. McDonald, A., "Learning rates for energy technologies", Energy Policy, 29, pp.255~261 (2001)
  55. Miketa, A, "Experiments with a methodology to model the role of R&D expenditures in energy technology learning processes; first results", Energy Policy, 32, pp.1679~1692 (2004)
  56. Mooz, W. E., "Cost Analysis of Light Water Reactor Power Plants" (1978), The RAND Corporation
  57. Nadler, G, "Manufacturing Progress Functions for Types of Process", International Journal of Production Research, 2(2), pp.115~135 (1963)
  58. Nagamatsu, A., "Diffusion trajectory of self-propagating innovations interacting with institutionsincorporation of multi-factors learning function to model PV diffusion in Japan", Energy Policy, 34, pp.411~421 (2006)
  59. Neij, L., "Cost dynamics of wind po wer", Energy, 24, pp.375~389 (1999)
  60. Nemet, G. F., "Beyond the learning curve : factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics", Energy Policy, 34, pp.3218~3232 (2006)
  61. Paik, S., "The Eff ect of Increased Regulation on Capital Costs and Manual Labor Requirements of Nuclear Power Plants", The Engineering Economist, 26(3), pp.223~244 (1980)
  62. Pan, H., "Technological change in energy systems : Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output c oefficients", Ecological Economics, 63, pp.749~758 (2007)
  63. Papineau, M., "An economic perspective on experience curves and dynamic economies in renewable energy technologies", Energy Policy, 34, pp.422~432 (2006)
  64. Park, T., "The Cross-industry Spillover of Technological Capability : Korea’s DRAM and TFT-LCD Industries", World Development, 36(12), pp.2855~2873 (2008)
  65. Partridge, I., "Renewable electricity generation in India-A learning rate analysis", Energy Policy, 60, pp.906~915 (2013)
  66. Popp, D., "ENTICE : endogenous technological change in the DICE model of global warming", Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 48, pp.742~768 (2004)
  67. Qiu, Y., "The price of wind power in China during its expansion : Technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization", Energy Economics, 34, pp.772~785 (2012)
  68. Rao, S., "Import ance of of Technological Change and Spillovers in Long-Term Climate Policy", The Energy Journal, 27, pp.123~139 (2006)
  69. Rout, U. K, "Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model", Energy Policy, 37, pp.2814~2830 (2009)
  70. Rubin, E. S., "Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture", International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 1, pp.188~197 (2007)
  71. Schoots, K., "Learning curves for hydrogen production technology : An assessment of observed cost reductions", International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 33, pp.2630~2645 (2008)
  72. Schoots, K., "Technology learning for fuel cells : An assessment of past and potential cost reductions", Energy Policy, 38, pp.2887~2897 (2010)
  73. Shum, K. L., "Towards a local learning(innovation)model of solar photovoltaic deployment", Energy Policy, 36, pp.508~521 (2008)
  74. Soderholm, P., "Wind Power in Europe : A Simultaneous Innovation-Diffusion Model", Environmental and Resource Economics, 36, pp.163~190 (2007)
  75. Soderholm, P., "Empirical challenges in the use of learning curves for assessing the economic prospects of renewable energy technologies", Renewable Energy, 32, pp.2559~2578 (2007)
  76. Stobaugh, R. B, "Price Forecasting and Strategic Planning : The Case of Petrochemicals", Journal of Marketing Research, 12(1), pp.19~29 (1975)
  77. Thornton, R. A., "Learning from Experience and Learning from Others : An Exploration of Learning and Spilloversin Wartime Shipbuilding", The American Economic Review, 91(5), pp.1350~1368 (2001)
  78. van Benthem, A., "Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California", The Energy Journal, 29(3), pp.131~151 (2008)
  79. van den Wall Bake, J. D., "Explaining the experience curve : Cost reductions of Brazilian ethanol from sugarcane", Biomass and Bioenergy, 33, pp.644~658 (2009)
  80. van der Zwaan, B., "Prospects for PV : a learning curve analysis", Solar Energy, 74, pp.19~31 (2003)
  81. van der Zwaan, B, "The learning potential of photovoltaics : implications for energy policy", Energy Policy, 32, pp.1545~1554 (2004)
  82. Watanabe, C., "Industrial dynamism and the creation of a"virtuous cycle"between R&D, market growth and price reduction The case of photovoltaic powergeneration(PV)development in Japan", Technovation, 20, pp.299~312 (2000)
  83. Weiss, M, "A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 77, pp.411~428 (2010)
  84. Wright, T. P., "Factors affecting the cost of airplanes", Journal of Aeronautical Sciences, 3(4), pp.122~128 (1936)
  85. Yeh, S, "A centurial history of technological change and learning curves for pulverized coal-fired utility boilers", Energy, 32, pp.1996~2005 (2007)
  86. Zheng, C., "An innovation-focused roadmap for a sustainable global photovoltaic industry", Energy Policy, 67, pp.159~169 (2014)
  87. Zimmerman, M. B., "Learning Effects and the Commercialization of New Energy Technologies: The Case of Nuclear Power", The Bell Journal of Economics, 13(2), pp.297~310 (1982)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (5건)