인공지능(AI)의 고용과 임금 효과
The Employment and Wage Effects of Artificial Intelligence(AI)
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초록
기술변화의 노동시장 효과에 관한 기존 연구가 자동화, 디지털화, 또는 로봇이나 컴퓨터 도입의 노동 시장 효과에 집중하였다면, 본 연구는 인공지능(Artificial Intelligence, AI)의 기술적 특성들의 고용과 임금 효과에 집중한다. AI응용기술(AI-apps)과 능력 변수들 사이의 연계표를 기초로 하여 직업별 인공지능노출도(AI Occupational Exposure, AIOE)를 도출하였다. 한국고용정보원의 한국직업정보 재직자 조사로 분석한 결과, AIOE는 학력, 임금 등과 높은 상관관계를 가지는 것을 확인했다. AIOE를 고용보험DB에 적용하여 AI의 고용과 임금 효과를 추정한 결과, AI는 고용증가에는 유의하나, 임금상승에는 유의하지 않았다. 그러나, AI의 임금 프리미엄은 유의하고 크게 나타났다. 이미지 관련 AI응용기술보다는 텍스트 관련 AI응용기술이 고용과 임금에 유의한 (+)의 효과를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 학력과 임금 수준에 따른 계층별 추정 결과는 유의하지 않았다. 다만, AI의 임금프리미엄이 고학력, 고임금, 높은 지식수준 계층에서 유의했다. 한국의 경우, AI가 노동시장을 양극화하지는 않고 있지만, AI 임금프리미엄 효과가 고학력-고임금 계층에서 크다는 점에서, 향후 AI의 노동시장 양극화 가능성을 배제할 수는 없다고 전망된다.
Abstract
This study focuses on the employment and wage effects of the technological characteristics of AI. Recently, AI job effect research is conducted in a way that links the technical characteristics of AI to ‘task’ or ‘ability’ among job characteristics, or connects ‘patent’ information and job information. This study created AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) by occupation based on the linking metrics between AI applications and ability variables. By applying AIOE to the Employment Insurance DB, we estimated the employment and wage effects of AI in the 2015-2019 region-occupation cell as an observation unit. The result is that AI significantly increases employment, but does not have a significant effect on wage increase. However, the wage premium of AI was significant and large. In particular, it was also found that textrelated AI-apps have a significant (+) effect on employment and wages while image-related AI-apps have not. Estimation was also made by class according to educational background, wage, and knowledge level. AI has a significant (+) effect on employment increase and wage increase in the low-education, low-middle-wage level. However, the wage premium of AI was found to be significant and high in the high educational and high wage level. Currently, AI technology in Korea does not act as a factor in deepening the polarization of the labor market, but since the wage premium effect of AI is clear and large in the high-education-high-wage class, it is judged that AI technology is likely to deepen the polarization of the labor market in the future.
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