ANN을 활용한 유역유출 변화에 따른 합천댐 저수지 수질영향 분석
Analysis of Water Quality Impact of Hapcheon Dam Reservoir According to Changes in Watershed Runoff Using ANN
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초록
기후변화는 예측할 수 없는 변동성이 매우 커지고 있다. 이로인해 생태계, 인류의 생활, 수문학적 순환 등 다양한 시스템에 변화를 가져오고 있다. 특히 최근 예측할 수 없는 기후변화로 인해 극한가뭄 및 집중호우가 자주 발생하며 그로인해 1차적 재해가 아닌 침수, 퇴사로 인한 수질오염을 유발하는 복합적인 수자원재해가 발생하고 있다. 유역모델로SWAT를 이용하여 장래 유출량 및 오염부하량을 분석하고 기후시나리오는 기상청 표준 시나리오(HadGEM3-RA)의RCP4.5 기후시나리오를 정상성 분위사상법을 적용하여 분석하였다. 기후시나리오와 유역모델의 연계모의로 유출량및 오염부하량 분석을 수행하였고 연계모형의 적용 및 검증과 기후변화에 따른 미래 수질 변화 분석 결과를 최종적으로제시하였다. 본 연구에서는 인공신경망을 이용하여 기후변화 시나리오를 모의하여 저수지 수질모형인 W2모델을 통한댐 저수지의 변화와 인공신경망에서의 수온과 탁도의 결과를 비교하였다. 본 연구의 결과로 신경망모형의 장점인 비선형성 및 간편성을 기후변화를 적용한 합천댐 저수지에서의 수온과 탁도 예측에 적용 가능성을 제시하고자 한다.
Abstract
Climate change is becoming increasingly unpredictable. This has led to changes in various systems such as ecosystems, human life and hydrological cycles. In particular, the recent unpredictable climate change frequently causes extreme droughts and torrential rains, resulting in complex water resources disasters that cause water pollution due to inundation and retirement rather than primary disasters. SWAT was used as a watershed model to analyze future runoff and pollutant loads. The climate scenario analyzed the RCP4.5 climate scenario of the Meteorological Agency standard scenario (HadGEM3-RA) using the normal quantitative mapping method. Runoff and pollutant load analysis were performed by linkage simulation of climate scenario and watershed model. Finally, the results of application and verification of linkage model and analysis of future water quality change due to climate change were presented. In this study, we simulated climate change scenarios using artificial neural networks, analyzed changes in water temperature and turbidity, and compared the results of dams with artificial neural network results through W2 model, a reservoir water quality model. The results of this study suggest the possibility of applying the nonlinearity and simplicity of neural network model to Hapcheon dam water quality prediction using climate change.
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