Russia, China and the Korean Peninsula: A Post-Ukraine Assessment
1
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The paper deals with Russia’s policies toward the Korean Peninsula in the post-Ukraine strategic environment. The article begins with the analysis of how Russia is drawing closer to China due to its ongoing confrontation with the West and the Ukraine crisis. The article then reviews three distinctive periods in Russian post-Cold War strategy toward the Koreas: the 1990s; the 2000s and the early 2010s; and 2014 onward. The author argues that Russia’s current policies toward the Peninsula are being increasingly driven by anti-Americanism and the rising dependence on China. Russia’s ties with the North are experiencing a renaissance, while the relations with the South have soured. Russia’s growing deference to China’s interests in East Asia will result in Moscow closely aligning with Beijing on the Korean Peninsula issues. In case of a North Korean contingency, this may lead to a Sino-Russian coordinated intervention in the North.
Abstract
The paper deals with Russia’s policies toward the Korean Peninsula in the post-Ukraine strategic environment. The article begins with the analysis of how Russia is drawing closer to China due to its ongoing confrontation with the West and the Ukraine crisis. The article then reviews three distinctive periods in Russian post-Cold War strategy toward the Koreas: the 1990s; the 2000s and the early 2010s; and 2014 onward. The author argues that Russia’s current policies toward the Peninsula are being increasingly driven by anti-Americanism and the rising dependence on China. Russia’s ties with the North are experiencing a renaissance, while the relations with the South have soured. Russia’s growing deference to China’s interests in East Asia will result in Moscow closely aligning with Beijing on the Korean Peninsula issues. In case of a North Korean contingency, this may lead to a Sino-Russian coordinated intervention in the North.
참고문헌 (59)
- "Main Points of Speech by Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Dr. Anatoly Antonov at the 14th Asia Security Summit ‘The Shangri-La Dialogue’" (2015)[URL]
- Beijing News, "Terrorism Surging in China: Blue Paper", ~ (2014)
- Byrne, Leo, "N. Korea, Russia Sign Military Agreement", NK News, ~ (2015)
- "Current Russian-North Korean Relations and Prospects of Their Development" (2015)[URL]
- "The Russia-China Friendship and Cooperation Treaty: A Strategic Shift in Eurasia?" (2001)[URL]
- Dai Xu, "China and Russia Should Forge a Eurasian Alliance", People’s Daily, ~ (2012)
- Erickson, Andrew, "China’s Oil Security Pipe Dream", Naval War College Review, 63(2), pp.88~111 (2010)
- Feng Yujun, "Rossiysko-Kitayskiye Otnosheniya: Sostoyaniye i Perspectivy Razvitiya" (2014), Russian Institute of Strategic Studies
- "Smiles and Waves: What Xi Jinping Took Away from Moscow" (2015)[URL]
- Gertz, Bill, "Russian Bombers Threaten Guam", Washington Free Beacon, ~ (2014)
- Global Times, "U.S. Actions Make China-Russia Alliance Appealing", ~ (2012)
- "Russia-Korea relations in the Architecture of Northeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific" (2003)[URL]
- "Offshore Control is the Answer" (2012)[URL]
- Horiuchi, Kenji, "Russia and East Asia: Informal and Gradual Integration" (2014), Routledge
- ITAR-TASS, "Russia, China to Jointly Develop Udokan Copper Field in Transbaikalia", ~ (2014)
- Rossiysko-Kitayskiy Dialog: Model’ 2015, "Ivanov, Igor", Russian International Affairs Council, ~ (2015)
- Kommersant, "To Mutual Benefit of the Parties", ~ (2015)
- Kotkin, Stephen, "The Unbalanced Triangle", Foreign Affairs, 88(5), pp.130~138 (2009)
- Kuhrt, Natasha, "Russia and East Asia: Informal and Gradual Integration" (2014), Routledge
- Lee, Rensselaer, "Russia’s Far East: New Dynamics in Asia Pacific and Beyond" (2015), Lynne Rienner
- Lo, Bobo, "Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics" (2008), Brookings Institution
- Lossan, Alexei, "Rosneft to Sell 10 Percent Stake in Largest Oil Field to Chinese Company", Russia Beyond the Headlines, ~ (2014)
- Mathew, Jerin, "China’s Dagong Undermines Western Sanctions on Russia, Rates Gazprom’s Debt at Top AAA", International Business Times, ~ (2015)
- Mikheev, Vasily, "Russian Policy towards the Korean Peninsula after Yeltsin’s Reelection as President", The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 11(2), pp.348~377 (1997)
- Mikheev, Vasily, "Russian Strategic Thought toward Asia" (2006), Palgrave Macmillan
- Mirski, Sean, "Stranglehold: The Context, Conduct and Consequences of an American Naval Blockade of China", Journal of Strategic Studies, 36(3), pp.385~421 (2013)
- Mu, Chunshan, "Why Doesn’t Russia Support China in the South China Sea?", The Diplomat, ~ (2014)
- "Russia Ready to Supply ‘Standard’ Su-35s to China, says Official" (2014)[URL]
- Panda, Ankit, "North Korean Human Rights Abuses on the Agenda at UN Security Council", The Diplomat, ~ (2014)
- PrimaMedia, "Remarks by Alexei Starichkov, Director of International Cooperation Department, Primorsky Krai Regional Government", ~ (2015)
- Putz, Catherine, "Sold: Russian S-400 Missile Defense Systems to China", The Diplomat, ~ (2015)
- RIA Novosti, "The Minister: Trade Turnover between Russia and the DPRK Can Reach $1 billion by 2020", ~ (2015)
- RIA Novosti, "Putin Confirms Plans to Meet Chinese President During APEC Summit in Beijing", ~ (2014)
- Rozman, Gilbert, "Uneasy Triangle: China, Russia and the United States in the New Global Order" (2015), The Center on Global Interests
- "Russia’s Relations with the ROK" (2015)[URL]
- "The Review of the Russian Far East’s Foreign Trade in 2014" (2015)[URL]
- "Joint Declaration by the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China on the Coordination of the Construction of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt" (2015)[URL]
- "Press Statement by Vladimir Putin Following Russian-Chinese Talks" (2015)[URL]
- "The Main Results of Investment Cooperation of Russia and China" (2015)[URL]
- "Interview with Russian Ambassador to the DPRK Alexander Matsegora" (2015)[URL]
- "Interview with Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Morgulov" (2015)[URL]
- "Russia, Ministry for the Far East Development" (2015)[URL]
- Sputnik, "U.S. THAAD Installation in South Korea Poses Security Threat to Russia?", ~ (2015)
- TASS, "Russia, China Seek to Form Asia-Pacific Collective Security System—Defense Minister", ~ (2015)
- The South China Morning Post, "Beijing Ready to Help Russia’s Rattled Economy, Chinese Foreign Minister Says", ~ (2014)
- The South China Morning Post, "Russia May Seek China Help to Deal with Crisis", ~ (2014)
- The Wall Street Journal, "Russia, OPEC Jostle to Meet China Oil Demand", ~ (2015)
- Toloraya, Georgy, "Another Cycle of the Korean Crisis, 2008-2010: Russia’s Interests and the Prospects for Getting Out of the Korean Impasse", Problemy Dal’nego Vostoka, (5), pp.3~19 (2010)
- "Korean Peninsula and Russia: The Problems of Interaction" (2002)[URL]
- "Korean Security and Unification Dilemmas: A Russian Perspective" (2015)[URL]
- Toloraya, Georgy, "Aziatsko-Tixookeanskoe Sotrudnichestvo i Mesto Rossii v Regional’nom Razvitii" (2014), Russian Institute for Strategic Studies
- Tolstokulakov, Igor, "Russia, America, and Security in the Asia-Pacific" (2006), Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies
- "From Greater Europe to Greater Asia: The Sino-Russian Entente" (2015)[URL]
- "Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story" (2012)[URL]
- "Russia and the Rise of Asia" (2013)[URL]
- Wilkins, Thomas, "Russo-Chinese Strategic Partnership: A New Form of Security Cooperation?", Contemporary Security Policy, 29(2), pp.358~383 (2008)
- Yan, Xuetong, "China 3.0" (2012), European Council on Foreign Relations
- Yi, Seong-Woo, "Multilateral Cooperation in East Asia with the Connection of TKR-TSR", Paper presented at the conference on “Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative between Russia and South Korea” Vladivostok (2015), Far Eastern Federal University
- Zhang, Wenzong, "Analysis of the Strategic Influence of the Ukraine Crisis", Contemporary International Relations, 25(1), pp.75~91 (2015)