커피 품종별 생산과 기후에 관한 연구 - 코스타리카를 사례로 -
The Impact of Climate on Yield of Coffee: The Case of Costa Rica
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Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of climatic elements on the arabica coffee yield during the various growth stages of coffee plant for the period of 1996-2017 over Costa Rica. For the future scenario, change rate of arabica coffee yield is also estimated using the data of production and cultivated area. The cultivation area and the yield of arabica coffee has been decreasing since the 1990s in Costa Rica. The decreasing trend in arabica coffee yield could have a negative effect on Costa Rica’s coffee industry in the future. During the dry season, the yield of arabica coffee has significant negative correlation with precipitation at the stage of flowering in the month of February. In case of wet season, coffee yield and temperature were negatively correlated while precipitation showed positive association with coffee yield at the stage of growing period in the month of August. However, the observation revealed the excessive precipitation drastically reduced arabica coffee yield in 2013 during August, the month of wet season. According to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios, due to high temperature and fluctuated precipitation the yield of arabica coffee is unstable and the future of coffee industries is also insecure.
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