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장기예보에 대한 수요특성 분석

Analysis of Demand Characteristics for Long-term Forecasts

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초록

This study identified the current condition of a long-term forecast and analyzed the demand characteristics in accordance with each field. The detailed policy plans of a long-term forecast and its follow-up task include the following. First, the need for promotion of a long-term forecast and the name of a ‘long-term forecast’ should be promoted. Second, the media of offering information needs to be promoted. Third, an in-depth survey of each segmented industry should be conducted. Fourth, it is necessary to prepare a tailored information system. Fifth, there is a need for establishing an information data delivery system according to corporate size. Sixth, it is required to provide relevant authorities with information in consideration of a regional scale. Seventh, the support of weather policies regarding a longterm forecast should be increased.

Abstract

This study identified the current condition of a long-term forecast and analyzed the demand characteristics in accordance with each field. The detailed policy plans of a long-term forecast and its follow-up task include the following. First, the need for promotion of a long-term forecast and the name of a ‘long-term forecast’ should be promoted. Second, the media of offering information needs to be promoted. Third, an in-depth survey of each segmented industry should be conducted. Fourth, it is necessary to prepare a tailored information system. Fifth, there is a need for establishing an information data delivery system according to corporate size. Sixth, it is required to provide relevant authorities with information in consideration of a regional scale. Seventh, the support of weather policies regarding a longterm forecast should be increased.

참고문헌 (12)

  1. 기상청, "기후변화와 장기예보" (2010)
  2. 김기훈, "2001 년도 봄 초청강연 및 학술발표회 발표논문", 포스터 발표 (전체분과):제4분과(D) 예보기술: 통계적 방법에 의한 월강수량의 장기예보, 2001, pp.11(1), 234~238
  3. 김백조, "고층자료를 이용한 장마의 시종과 강수량에 관한 장기예보의 가능성", 한국기상학회 1996년도 봄 초청강연 및 학술발표회, pp.59~59 (1996)
  4. 문자연, "상세 장기예보를 위한 기후지역 구분 검증 연구", 2008년도 한국기상학회 가을 학술대회, pp.208~209 (2008)
  5. 박원희, "GDAPS 수치 예측자료를 유사", 반유사법에 적용한 장기예보, 2003, pp.39(4), 491~501[DOI]
  6. 손건태, "남한지역 황사출현일수에 대한봄철 월별 장기예보 통계모델 개발", 2009년도한국기상학회 봄 학술대회, pp.44~45 (2009)
  7. 신정엽, "장기예보 서비스의 현황 분석 및 활용 방안 연구: 에너지 산업을 중심으로", 한국지도학회지, 11(3), pp.69~87 (2011), 한국지도학회
  8. 안중배, "WMO 장기예보 선도센터 자료를 이용한 다중모델앙상블기법 비교 연구", 2009년도 한국기상학회 가을학술대회, pp.502~503 (2009)
  9. 윤원태, "WMO 장기예보 다중모델 앙상블 선도센터", 한국기상학회 봄 학술대회, pp.294~295 (2007)
  10. 이명훈, "고산지역 등압면 고도에 따른 제주도지역 월강수량의 장기예측", 대기, 12(3), pp.460~463 (2002)
  11. 유시용, "Stochastic Daily Temperature Simulation in Seasonal Forecast", 한국기상학회지, 40(6), pp.673~684 (2004), 한국기상학회
  12. WMO, "New Attachment II-9 to the Manual on the GDPS(WMO-No.485), Volume I, Standardised Verification System (SVS) for Long- Range Forecasts (LRF), Version 3.0" (2002)

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