강수확률예보 만족도 제고를 위한 정책방안-2004∼2013년 서울과 부산을 중심으로-
A Policy Measure for Enhancing the User Satisfaction of the Rainfall Probability Forecast: A Case Study of Seoul and Busan in 2004 to 2013
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초록
In this study, instead of economic estimation of forecast value, we evaluated the value score(VS)of the user satisfaction using the concept of satisfaction/dissatisfaction. We compared the collective ValueScores (cVS) based on outputs of probabilistic forecasts of precipitation seasonally in Seoul and Busanduring the period of 2004 to 2013 and finally found the optimum threshold that can improve cVS of bothcities. When using 30% threshold, the users can expect a higher cVS compared with those using otherthresholds. When using the seasonal optimum threshold in Seoul, the cVS is additionally higher by 9%. These results show the level of satisfaction of the forecast that can be improved when the meteorologicalcommunities inform the users the correct threshold of the rainfall probabilistic forecast.
Abstract
In this study, instead of economic estimation of forecast value, we evaluated the value score(VS)of the user satisfaction using the concept of satisfaction/dissatisfaction. We compared the collective ValueScores (cVS) based on outputs of probabilistic forecasts of precipitation seasonally in Seoul and Busanduring the period of 2004 to 2013 and finally found the optimum threshold that can improve cVS of bothcities. When using 30% threshold, the users can expect a higher cVS compared with those using otherthresholds. When using the seasonal optimum threshold in Seoul, the cVS is additionally higher by 9%. These results show the level of satisfaction of the forecast that can be improved when the meteorologicalcommunities inform the users the correct threshold of the rainfall probabilistic forecast.
참고문헌 (19)
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