본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

CAUSALITY AND DYNAMICS OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND OUTPUT: EVIDENCE FROM NON-OECD ASIAN COUNTRIES

RUHUL A. SALIM|SHUDDHASATTWA RAFIQ|A.F.M. KAMRUL HASSAN
경제연구소 (Hanyang Economic Research Institute)|2008.12|Journal of Economic Development|제33권 제2호|pp. 1-26|DOI 10.35866/caujed.2008.33.2.001

1

조회

0

다운로드

2

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

CointegrationError Correction ModelEnergy ConservationGeneralized Variance DecompositionsGeneralized Impulse Response Functions
주제분류경제학

초록

This article examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures whereas India and Pakistan may focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. For Malaysia, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate

Abstract

This article examines the short-run and long-run causal relationship between energy consumption and output in six non-OECD Asian developing countries. Standard time series econometrics is used for this purpose. Based on cointegration and vector error correction modeling, the empirical result shows a bi-directional causality between energy consumption and income in Malaysia, while a unidirectional causality from output to energy consumption in China and Thailand and energy consumption to output in India and Pakistan. Bangladesh remains as an energy neutral economy confirming the fact that it is one of the lowest energy consuming countries in Asia. Both the generalized variance decompositions and the impulse response functions confirm the direction of causality in these countries. These findings have important policy implications for concerned countries. Countries like China and Thailand may contribute to the fight against global warming directly implementing energy conservation measures whereas India and Pakistan may focus on technological developments and mitigation policies. For Malaysia, a balanced combination of alternative policies seems to be appropriate

참고문헌 (42)

  1. Abosedra, S., "New Evidence on the Causal Relationship Between United States Energy Consumption and Gross National Product", Journal of Energy Development, 14, pp.285~292 (1989)
  2. Al-Iriani,M.A., "Energy-GDP Relationship Revisited: An Example from GCC Countries Using Panel Causality", Energy Policy, 34(17), pp.3342~3350 (2006)
  3. Altinay,G., "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey", Energy Economics, 27(6), pp.849~856 (2005)
  4. Asafu-Adjaye,J., "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from Asian Developing Countries", Energy Economics, 22(6), pp.615~625 (2000)
  5. Brooks,C., "Introductory Econometrics for Finance" (2002), Cambridge University Press
  6. Chen, S.-T., "The Relationship Between GDP and Electricity Consumption in 10 Asian Countries", Energy Policy, 35(4), pp.2611~2621 (2007)
  7. Eagle, R.F., "Cointegration and Error Correction Representation, Estimation and Testing", Econometrica, 55(1), pp.26~ (1987)
  8. Energy Information Administration, "World Total Energy Consumption By Region" (2006), Reference Case
  9. Granger,C.W.J., "Investigating Causal Relations By Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods", Econometrica, 37(3), pp.424~438 (1969)
  10. Hacker, R.S., "The Effect of Regime Shifts on the Long-Run Relationships for Swedish Money Demand", Applied Economics, 37, pp.1131~1136 (2005)
  11. Johansen,S., "Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12(2-3), pp.231~254 (1988)
  12. Johansen, S., "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointigration With Applications to the Demand for Money", Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 52(2), pp.169~210 (1990)
  13. Koop,G., "Impulse Response Analysis in Nonlinear Multivariate Models", Journal of Econometrics, 74(1), pp.119~147 (1996)
  14. Kraft,J., "On the Relationship Between Energy and GNP", Journal of Energy Development, 3, pp.401~403 (1978)
  15. Lee,C.-C., "Structural Breaks, Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth Revisited: Evidence from Taiwan", Energy Economics, 27(6), pp.857~872 (2005)
  16. Maddala, G. S., "Unit Roots, Cointegration and Structural Break" (1998), Cambridge University Press
  17. Masih, A.M.M., "Energy Consumption, Real Income and Temporal Causality: Results from a Multi-Country Study Based on Cointegration and Error-Correction Modeling Techniques", Energy Economics, 18(3), pp.165~183 (1996)
  18. Masih, A.M.M., "On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption, Real Income, and Prices: Some New Evidence from Asian-energy Dependent NICs Based on a Multivariate Cointegration", Vector Error-Correction Approach, 1997, pp.19(4), 417~440
  19. Masih, A.M.M., "A Multivariate Cointegrated Modeling Approach in Testing Temporal Causality Between Energy Consumption, Real Income and Prices with an Application to Two Asian LDCs", Applied Economics, 30(10), pp.1287~1298 (1998)
  20. Mehrara,M., "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: The Case of Oil Exporting Countries", Energy Policy, 35(5), pp.2939~2945 (2007)
  21. Morimoto,R., "The Impact of Electricity Supply on Economic Growth in Sri Lanka", Energy Economics, 26(1), pp.77~85 (2004)
  22. Mozumder, P., "Causality Relationship Between Electricity Consumption and GDP in Bangladesh", Energy Policy, 35(1), pp.395~402 (2007)
  23. Narayan, P.K., "Electricity Consumption, Employment and Real Income in Australia Evidence from Multivariate Granger Causality Tests", Energy Policy, 33(9), pp.1109~1116 (2005)
  24. Oh, W., "Causal Relationship Between Energy Consumption and GDP Revisited: The Case of Korea 1970-1999", Energy Economics, 26(1), pp.51~59 (2004)
  25. Oh,W., "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea: Testing the Causality Relation", Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(8-9), pp.973~981 (2004)
  26. Perron,P., "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shocks, and the Unit Root Hypothesis", Econometrica, 57(6), pp.41~ (1989)
  27. Perron,P., "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables", Journal of Econometrics, 80(2), pp.355~385 (1997)
  28. Pesaran, M.H., "Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models", Economics Letters, 58, pp.17~29 (1998)
  29. Salim, R.A., "Business Expenditure on R&D and Trade Performances in Australia: Is There a link", pp.1~11 (2007), Applied Economics
  30. Salman, A.K., "Testing for Granger Causality Between Industrial Output and CPI in the Presence of Regime Shift: Swedish Data", Journal of Economic Studies, 31(5, pp.6) (2004), 492~499
  31. Shiu,A., "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China", Energy Policy, 32(1), pp.47~54 (2004)
  32. Sims,C.A., "Money, Income, and Causality", American Economic Review, 62(4), pp.540~552 (1972)
  33. Sims,C.A., "Macroeconomics and Reality", Econometrica, 48, pp.1~48 (1980)
  34. Soytas,U., "Energy Consumption and GDP: Causality Relationship in G-7 Countries and Emerging Markets", Energy Economics, 25(1), pp.33~37 (2003)
  35. Soytas,U., "Energy Consumption and Income in G-7 Countries", Journal of Policy Modeling, 28(7), pp.739~750 (2006)
  36. Stern,D.I., "Energy and Economic Growth in the USA: A Multivariate Approach", Energy Economics, 15(2), pp.137~150 (1993)
  37. Stern,D.I., "A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis of the Role of Energy in the US Macroeconomy", Energy Economics, 22(2), pp.267~283 (2000)
  38. Wolde-Rufael,Y., "Disaggregated Industrial Energy Consumption and GDP: The Case of Shanghai, 1952-1999", Energy Economics, 26(1), pp.69~75 (2004)
  39. Wolde-Rufael,Y., "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: A Time Series Experience for 17 African countries", Energy Policy, 34(10), pp.1106~1114 (2006)
  40. Yoo,S.-H., "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Korea", Energy Policy, 33(12), pp.1627~1632 (2005)
  41. Yu,E.S.H., "The Relationship Between Energy and GNP: Further Results", Energy Economics, 6(3), pp.186~190 (1984)
  42. Zivot,E., "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), pp.20~ (1992)

관련 논문AI추천

Energy Consumption, GDP and Trade in East Asian Countries: A cointegrated panel analysis김수이재단법인 에너지경제연구원 · 에너지경제연구2015 · 제14권 제1호CO₂Emissions, Energy Consumption, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Korea김수이, 이성훈한국응용경제학회 · 응용경제2017 · 제19권 제2호CO2 Emissions, Foreign Direct Investments, Energy Consumption, and GDP in Developing Countries: A More Comprehensive Study using Panel Vector Error Correction Model김수이한국경제학회 · The Korean Economic Review2019 · 제35권 제1호A Study on the Effect of Economic Growth and Energy Consumption on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in India from 1970 to 2021강명주(사)위기관리이론과실천 · Journal of Safety and Crisis Management2023 · 제13권 제11호Trade Liberalization, Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and the Environment: Time Series Evidence from G-20 Economies김현석, 백정호대외경제정책연구원 · East Asian Economic Review2011 · 제15권 제1호한국의 경제성장, 전력소비, CO2배출 간 인과관계 분석노건기, 박중구, 이중호한국신·재생에너지학회 · 신재생에너지2016 · 제12권 제1호

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)

INSTITUTIONS, INNOVATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTHEDINALDO TEBALDI, BRUCE ELMSLIEpp. 27-53FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN POST-REFORM INDIA: LIKELY TO WORK WONDERS FOR REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT?RUDI STRACKE, PETER NUNNENKAMPpp. 55-84WELFARE PROGRAMS FOR THE GLOBAL ERA: LESSONS FROM THE U.S. EXPERIENCE윤봉준pp. 85-106MEASUREMENT ERROR BIAS IN RETURNS TO EDUCATION: EVIDENCE FROM A DEVELOPING COUNTRY - SRI LANKATHOMAS HERTZ, RASIKA RANASINGHEpp. 107-124AN OCCUPATIONAL CHOICE MODEL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIESGERARDO JACOBSpp. 125-153
원문 보기