Who Will Fill China’s Shoes? The Global Evolution of Labor-Intensive Manufacturing
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China’s rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a role previously occupied by the East Asian Tigers, the world may again be on the cusp of significant change in where labor-intensive goods are produced. China’s prowess in these sectors peaked in the early 2010s; its share in their global exports, while still substantial, is now in decline. Mechanisms through which the global economy may adjust to China’s graduation into more technologically sophisticated activities include expanded labor-intensive export production in other emerging economies and labor-saving technological change in products currently heavily reliant on less-educated labor. Available evidence suggests that the first mechanism is operating slowly and the second hardly at all. As a third mechanism, China may in part replace itself by moving labor-heavy factories out of densely populated and expensive coastal cities and into the country’s interior. Such a transition, though still in its infancy, would mirror the decentralization of manufacturing production in the U.S. and Europe, which occurred after World War II.
Abstract
In this paper, I review evidence on changing global specialization in labor-intensive exporting. Production of apparel, footwear, furniture, and related products are how many low-income countries first enter export manufacturing. Just as China’s rise as a powerhouse in these goods supplanted a role previously occupied by the East Asian Tigers, the world may again be on the cusp of significant change in where labor-intensive goods are produced. China’s prowess in these sectors peaked in the early 2010s; its share in their global exports, while still substantial, is now in decline. Mechanisms through which the global economy may adjust to China’s graduation into more technologically sophisticated activities include expanded labor-intensive export production in other emerging economies and labor-saving technological change in products currently heavily reliant on less-educated labor. Available evidence suggests that the first mechanism is operating slowly and the second hardly at all. As a third mechanism, China may in part replace itself by moving labor-heavy factories out of densely populated and expensive coastal cities and into the country’s interior. Such a transition, though still in its infancy, would mirror the decentralization of manufacturing production in the U.S. and Europe, which occurred after World War II.
참고문헌 (57)
- Acemoglu, D., "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets", Journal of Political Economy, 128(6), pp.2188~2244 (2020)
- Amiti, M., "Trade Liberalization, Intermediate Inputs, and Productivity: Evidence from Indonesia", American Economic Review, 97(5), pp.1611~1638 (2007)
- Amiti, M., "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), pp.187~210 (2019)
- Autor, D. H., "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States", American Economic Review, 103(6), pp.2121~2168 (2013)
- Autor, D. H., "The China Shock: Learning from Labor Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade", Annual Review of Economics, 8, pp.205~240 (2016)
- On the Persistence of the China Shock, "Autor, D. H.", Harvard University, ~ (2020)
- Autor, D. H., "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents", American Economic Review: Insights, 2(3), pp.357~374 (2020)
- Bai, X., "How You Export Matters: Export Mode, Learning and Productivity in China", Journal of International Economics, 104, pp.122~137 (2017)
- Balassa, B., "Trade Liberalisation and ‘Revealed’ Comparative Advantage", Manchester School, 33(2), pp.99~123 (1965)
- Baum-Snow, N., "Roads, Railroads, and Decentralization of Chinese Cities", Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(3), pp.435~448 (2017)
- Bergsten, C. F., "Currency Conflict and Trade Policy: A New Strategy for the United States" (2017), Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Accounting for Chinese Exports, "Brandt, L.", University of Toronto, Department of Economics, ~, pp.Working paper, no. 680 (2020)
- China’s Productivity Slowdown and Future Growth Potential, "Brandt, L.", World Bank, ~, pp.World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, no. 9298 (2020)
- Brandt, L., "Tariffs and the Organization of Trade in China", Journal of International Economics, 104, pp.85~103 (2017)
- Brandt, L., "WTO Accession and Performance of Chinese Manufacturing Firms", American Economic Review, 107(9), pp.2784~2820 (2017)
- Brandt, L., "Creative Accounting or Creative Destruction? Firm-Level Productivity Growth in Chinese Manufacturing", Journal of Development Economics, 97(2), pp.339~351 (2012)
- China’s Embrace of Globalization, "Branstetter, L.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, no. 12373 (2006)
- Spatial Misallocation: Evaluating Place-Based Policies Using a Natural Experiment in China, "Chen, B.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, no. 26148 (2019)
- Cheng, H., "The Rise of Robots in China", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), pp.71~88 (2019)
- Cheung, Y.-W., "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation", Journal of International Money and Finance, 26(5), pp.762~785 (2007)
- Costa, F., "Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom", Journal of International Economics, 102, pp.50~69 (2016)
- Duranton, G., "Nursery Cities: Urban Diversity, Process Innovation, and the Life Cycle of Products", American Economic Review, 91(5), pp.1454~1477 (2001)
- Eaton, J., "Technology, Geography, and Trade", Econometrica, 70(5), pp.1741~1779 (2002)
- Ellison, G., "What Causes Industry Agglomeration? Evidence from Coagglomeration Patterns", American Economic Review, 100(3), pp.1195~1213 (2010)
- Fajgelbaum, P. D., "Optimal Spatial Policies, Geography, and Sorting", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(2), pp.959~1036 (2020)
- Fan, J., "Internal Geography, Labor Mobility, and the Distributional Impacts of Trade", American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 11(3), pp.252~288 (2019)
- Feenstra, R. C., "Ownership and Control in Outsourcing to China: Estimating the Property-Rights Theory of the Firm", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), pp.729~761 (2005)
- Flaaen, A., "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines", American Economic Review, 110(7), pp.2103~2127 (2020)
- Fort, T. C., "Technology and Production Fragmentation: Domestic versus Foreign Sourcing", Review of Economic Studies, 84(2), pp.650~687 (2017)
- Fort, T. C., "New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 32(2), pp.47~72 (2018)
- Goldberg, P. K., "Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), pp.1727~1767 (2010)
- Handley, K., "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States", American Economic Review, 107(9), pp.2731~2783 (2017)
- Hanson, G. H., "The Indonesian Economy: Trade and Industrial Policies", pp.30~74 (2017), Routledge
- The Dynamics of Comparative Advantage, "Hanson, G. H.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, no. 21753 (2015)
- Hsieh, C.-T., "What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence from the Factor Markets", American Economic Review, 92(3), pp.502~526 (2002)
- Hsieh, C.-T., "Grasp the Large, Let Go of the Small: The Transformation of the State Sector in China", Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2015(1), pp.295~366 (2015)
- Highways and Globalization, "Jaworski, T.", NBER, ~, pp.NBER Working Paper, no. 27938 (2020)
- Kee, H. L., "Domestic Value Added in Exports: Theory and Firm Evidence from China", American Economic Review, 106(6), pp.1402~1436 (2016)
- Khandelwal, A. K., "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters", American Economic Review, 103(6), pp.2169~2195 (2013)
- Koopman, R., "Estimating Domestic Content in Exports When Processing Trade Is Pervasive", Journal of Development Economics, 99(1), pp.178~189 (2012)
- Lardy, N. R., "Foreign trade and economic reform in China, 1978-1990" (1992), Cambridge University Press
- Lardy, N. R., "The State Strikes Back: The End of Economic Reform in China?" (2019), Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Levinson, M., "The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger" (2016), Princeton University Press
- Li, H., "The End of Cheap Chinese Labor", Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(4), pp.57~74 (2012)
- China’s Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade, "Liu, C.", ~, pp.MPRA paper, no. 103970 (2020)
- Long, C., "Patterns of China’s Industrialization: Concentration, Specialization, and Clustering", China Economic Review, 23(3), pp.593~612 (2012)
- Lu, Y., "Trade Liberalization and Markup Dispersion: Evidence from China’s WTO Accession", American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 7(4), pp.221~253 (2015)
- College Expansion, Trade, and Innovation: Evidence from China, "Ma, X.", UC San Diego, ~ (2020)
- Michaels, G., "The Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skill: Evidence from the Interstate Highway System", Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(4), pp.683~701 (2008)
- Naughton, B., "The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth" (2007), MIT Press
- Naughton, B., "Inside and outside: The modernized hierarchy that runs China", Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(2), pp.404~415 (2016)
- Pierce, J. R., "The Surprisingly Swift Decline of US Manufacturing Employment", American Economic Review, 106(7), pp.1632~1662 (2016)
- Song, Z., "Growing Like China", American Economic Review, 101(1), pp.196~233 (2011)
- Vogel, E. F., "Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China" (2011), Belknap Press of Harvard University Press
- Wade, R., "Governing the Market: Economic Theory and the Role of Government in East Asian Industrialization" (2004), Princeton University Press
- Yu, M., "Processing Trade, Tariff Reductions and Firm Productivity: Evidence from Chinese Firms", Economic Journal, 125(585), pp.943~988 (2015)
- Zheng, S., "The Evolving Geography of China’s Industrial Production: Implications for Pollution Dynamics and Urban Quality of Life", Journal of Economic Surveys, 28(4), pp.709~724 (2014)