Foreign Policy of Kim Jong Un's 10 Years: Relentless Maneuvering among Options
1
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper summarizes the political directions Pyongyang has displayed in its nuclear diplomacy for the past ten years in a time sequential manner. The particular focus has been on Pyongyang's insistence on maintaining various options to choose from and its political ability to materialize them. The study has looked into North Korea's major policy transitions and the changes in position prominently demonstrated in its diplomacy with the U.S., China, and South Korea. During the period studied, Pyongyang has shown flexible attitudes,which include: 1) its radical transition from aggressive nuclear and missile capacity building to returning to the negotiation table; 2) its transition of the main issue from demanding corresponding security measures to demanding sanctions relief; 3) its transition of the up-front goal from showing off its retaliation deterrence capacity to strike the U.S. mainland to completion of nuclear war-fighting capabilities in the regional arena; and 4) its transition from hedging against China, focusing on its possible negotiation with the U.S., to hedging against the U.S., focusing on its possible closer ties with China. Such flexibility has been quite successful as a way to realize the strategic objectives that North Korea wanted to achieve in the first place.
Abstract
This paper summarizes the political directions Pyongyang has displayed in its nuclear diplomacy for the past ten years in a time sequential manner. The particular focus has been on Pyongyang's insistence on maintaining various options to choose from and its political ability to materialize them. The study has looked into North Korea's major policy transitions and the changes in position prominently demonstrated in its diplomacy with the U.S., China, and South Korea. During the period studied, Pyongyang has shown flexible attitudes,which include: 1) its radical transition from aggressive nuclear and missile capacity building to returning to the negotiation table; 2) its transition of the main issue from demanding corresponding security measures to demanding sanctions relief; 3) its transition of the up-front goal from showing off its retaliation deterrence capacity to strike the U.S. mainland to completion of nuclear war-fighting capabilities in the regional arena; and 4) its transition from hedging against China, focusing on its possible negotiation with the U.S., to hedging against the U.S., focusing on its possible closer ties with China. Such flexibility has been quite successful as a way to realize the strategic objectives that North Korea wanted to achieve in the first place.
참고문헌 (26)
- Bolton, John, "The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir" (2020), Simon and Schuster
- Lim, Soo Ho, "Modern North Korea Studies" (2013), Contemporary Critics
- Oberdorfer, Don, "The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History" (2013), Hachette
- Elleman, Michael, "The Secret to North Korea's ICBM Success", Survival, 59(5), pp.25~36 (2017)
- 홍석훈, "김정은 정권의 신대외전략 분석", 정치·정보연구, 18(2), pp.59~83 (2015), 한국정치정보학회[DOI]
- 황일도, "핵 교리 진화의 공통 경로와 최근 북한의 핵 확전 개념", 국가전략, 27(3), pp.5~26 (2021), 세종연구소[DOI]
- 황일도, "North Korea’s Nuclear Command and Control Estimate: Variables and Trends", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 33(4), pp.617~638 (2021), 한국국방연구원[DOI]
- 김진하, "북한 군사적 강압외교(Coercive Diplomacy)의 수정주의(Revisionism)적 기원", 국방연구, 63(1), pp.1~26 (2020), 국가안전보장문제연구소[DOI]
- 이종주, "김정은의 핵 강압외교 연구", 현대북한연구, 22(3), pp.88~130 (2019), 심연북한연구소[DOI]
- 이상근, "김정은 리더십과 북한의 대외정책", 한국과 국제정치, 33(4), pp.91~128 (2017), 극동문제연구소[DOI]
- 박형중, "수령독재 하에서 권력과 이권을 둘러싼 갈등 동학 그리고 장성택 숙청", 북한연구학회보, 18(1), pp.1~27 (2014), 북한연구학회
- "Understanding North Korea's Missile Tests" (2017)[URL]
- Analysis on North Korea's Main Nuclear-Missile Activities, "Hong, Min", Korea Institute for National Unification, ~, pp.KINU Insight, no. 1 (2017)
- Analysis on Two Years of North Korea's Strategic Nuclear Forces Construction Initiative, "Hwang, Ildo", Korea National Diplomatic Academy, ~, pp.Analysis of Major International Issues, no. 6 (2018)
- Dual Structure of North Korea's Economic Development Discourse: Implications on Nuclear Negotiation, "Hwang, Ildo", Korea National Diplomatic Academy, ~, pp.Analysis of Major International Issues, no. 6 (2019)
- North Korea's Recent Perception on International Political Landscape: Implication on Nuclear Negotiation, "Hwang, Ildo", Korea National Diplomatic Academy, ~, pp.Analysis of Major International Issues, no. 36 (2019)
- Recent Trend in Development of Tactical-Strategic Weapons and Implication on the Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence Doctrine in North Korea Since Hanoi Summit, "Kim, Jungsup", Sejong Institute, ~, pp.Sejong Policy Brief, no. 6 (2021)
- "Off to Stockholm, Kim Myong-gil from North Korea... New signals from the U.S" (2019)[URL]
- "Examining Kim's Approach to Construction: Project Wonsan" (2020)[URL]
- "Conventional Deterrence of North Korea" (2019)[URL]
- New Cuban Government of Díaz-Canel: Implications and Challenges, "Son, Hye Hyun", Korea National Diplomatic Academy, ~, pp.Analysis of Major International Issues, no. 21 (2018)
- "North Korean Missile Launches & Nuclear Tests: 1984-Present" (2021)[URL]
- "Homepage of Ministry of Foreign Affairs"[URL]
- "Korean Central News Agency", ~
- "Rodong Sinmun", ~
- "Statement of Charles A. Richard Commander United States Strategic Command before the Senate Committee on Armed Services 13 February 2020" (2020)[URL]