현대테러리즘의 진화 추세에 따른 연구접근 방법론 고찰
A Study of Corresponding Methodology Based on Evolutionary Tendency of Modern Terrorism
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현대국제정치 시각으로 보면 전쟁의 가능성이 감소한 만큼 민족주의 및 급진주의가 종교와 연합하면서 테러가 국가나 단체의 이익을 위한 수단으로 대체되고 있으며, 테러주체, 목적, 수단, 방법 등이 다양한 양상을 띠고 있다. 그러나 국내에서는 테러의 재앙을 거의 경험하지 않아 진화하는 국제적인 테러의 추세에 민감하지 않은 편이다. 그러나 한국도 IS의 테러 대상 60개국에 포함되어 있는 이상 한반도와 한국인도 더 이상 테러에 안심할 수 없다. 본 연구는 현대테러리즘의 진화추세를 조명해 보기 위하여 David Rapoport의 테러리즘 4세대 물결론과 Jeffrey Kaplan의 5세대 물결론 및 론울프와 같은 또 다른 변화추세를 분석하여 현대 테러리즘의 성격과 진화방향을 규명하고자 노력하였다. 래포폴트는 현대 125년간의 국제테러를 분석하여 무정부주의, 반식민주의, 급진좌파, 종교주의 등 4세대로 구분하여 시대별로 일정한 경향과 특징이 있었다는 것을 이론화하였다. 한편 카플란의 5세대 물결론은 지역주의와 외국인 혐오증이라는 시대정신이 반영되어 강간, 유괴, 여성이 4세대 물결의 자살폭탄과 같은 기능을 수행한다는 신물결론을 주장하였다. 그리고 기타 학자들은 최근의 론울프, 지도자없는 저항, 복합테러와 같은 자생적 테러의 확산 가능성을 제시하고 있다. 테러분자를 색출하고 추적하는데 도움이 되는 연구접근 방법론을 모색하기 위하여 테러리스트들의 심리상태와 비용대 효과를 분석하여 접근하는 합리적 선택이론(Rational Choice Theory: RCT)과 현장연구에 의한 빅데이터를 적용하여 테러리스트를 추적하는 근거이론(Grounded Theory: GT)의 방법론을 분석하여 제시하였다.
Abstract
These days, the probability of war is likely to substitute to terror united with nationalism, radicalism and religion in a new angle of international politics. That means the terror is used to take national interest or some group’s profits. Recently the aspects of terror have changed in terms of the subject, purpose, means and ways of terror. But the study of terrorism is not proactive and insensible to the international tendency in Korea. In this paper I tried to explore The Four Waves of Modern Terrorism by David Rapoport and Terrorism’s Fifth Wave by Jeffrey Kaplan in order to look into the nature of terrorism and evolution. Rapoport closely examined international terror for 125 years and discovered the constant tendencies and characteristics driven by a common predominant energy that shapes the participating groups. Their names - Anarchist, Anticolonial, New Left and Religious – each suggest a different energy. Nationalist organizations and Religious sentiment appeared in 4 generational waves with revolution, radicalism, assassination and homicide bombing. Kaplan also argued the fifth wave distinguished for rape, kidnap, women reflecting the zeitgeist such as strong localism and xenophobia. I introduced the lone wolf, resistance without leader and complex terror as a new terrorism. As corresponding methodology of terror, I also suggested Rational Choice Theory (RCT) which refers to methodology to take up terrorists based on examining cost versus effect and Grounded Theory (GT) to arrest terrorists by means of using big data of terror sources.
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