시스템 다이내믹스를 이용한 재난관리자원의 동원 및 응원 시뮬레이션 - 제설제를 중심으로 -
Simulation of Mobilization and Support of Disaster Management Resources Using System Dynamics - Focusing on Deicing Agents -
0
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
본 연구에서는 시스템 다이내믹스 방법론을 활용하여 지자체 간 재난관리자원 상호연계형 운영모델을제시하였다. 이때 분석 대상은 서울시 내 시군구별 제설제 비축량으로 선정하여 인과지도와 저량-유량도를 구성하였다. 그리고 통계자료 기반으로 실제 대설 재난 상황과 유사하도록 서울시에서 11개의 시군구에서 5일간 대설 예상 생량 3수준, 대설 대응 규모 4수준에 해당하는 대설이 발생한다는 시나리오를설정하였다. 모의실험 결과, 대설 발생지역은 4.5일 차에 제설제 비축량이 최소비축량 이하로 떨어지며, 대설 미발생지역은 약 14.5일 차에 제설제가 최소비축량 이하로 떨어진다. 또한 서울시 재난관리자원통합관리센터의 제설제 비축필요량은 약 2,155ton으로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 제설제가 최소비축량 이하로 떨어지는 시점을 기반으로 제설제 필요량 수급의 RTO 설정에 활용할 수 있으며, 통합관리센터 내적정 제설제 비축량을 제시하여 재난관리자원 상호 연계에 활용될 수 있다는 의의가 있다.
Abstract
In this study, a disaster management resource simulation model between local governments was suggested using the system dynamics methodology. At this time, the subject of analysis was selected as the stockpile of deicing agents for each district in Seoul. Based on statistical data, a scenario was set in which the expected amount of heavy snowfall reached level 3, and the response to heavy snowfall reached level 4 for 5 days in the 11 districts of Seoul. The simulation shows that in areas with heavy snow, the deicing agent stock falls below the minimum by the 4.5th day, and in areas without heavy snow, it happens by the 14.5th day. Additionally, it was estimated that the Seoul Disaster Resource Integrated Management Center required about 2,155 tons of deicing agents. This study is meaningful because it can be used to set the RTO(Recovery Time Objective) for the mobilization and support of deicing agents. Furthermore, it can be used to interconnect disaster management resources by suggesting an appropriate stockpile of deicing agents for the Seoul Disaster Resource Integrated Management Center.
참고문헌 (8)
- Ergun, O., "Humanitarian Supply Chain Management-an Overview", Dagstuhl Seminar Proceedings (2009), Schloss Dagstuhl-Leibniz-Zentrum Für Informatik
- Giedelmann-L, N., "System Dynamics Approach for Food Inventory Policy Assessment in a Humanitarian Supply Chain", International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 81, pp.103286~ (2022)
- A Study on the Construction of Advanced Road Construction System, "KICT", Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs, ~ (2011)
- Kim, Deokmin, "The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Economic Fluctuations : A System Dynamics View", Korean System Dynamics Review, 21(3), pp.51~70 (2020)
- Lee, Jeong-woo, "An Exploratory Study on the Redeployment of Police Force in the Era of Population Decline and Local Annihilation Using System Dynamics Methodology", Korean Public Management Review, 37(2), pp.163~189 (2023)
- Moon, Jeong Heum, "A Study on Ways to Reduce the Use of Road Snow Removal Agent Reflecting Local Characteristics: Based on the Case of Incheon Facilities Corporation", The Korean Journal of Local Public Enterprises, 17(1), pp.1~31 (2021)
- Oh, Sumi, "An Analysis of the Effects of a Shift in Regional Balanced Development Policies on the Regional Disparity: Using System Dynamics", Journal of Local Government Studies, 34(1), pp.245~275 (2022)
- Won, Jong Seok, "A Study on Countermeasures Against Heavy Snow on Road in Seoul: Focusing on Seocho 1-dong", International Journal of Highway Engineering, 16(3), pp.67~74 (2014)