전시 수요 형태별 최적 보급수준에 대한 정량적 산출: 육군 유류 공급을 중심으로
Quantitative Calculation of Optimal Supply Level for Types of Wartime Demand: Focusing on Army Fuel Supply
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The military has made various efforts to prepare for war even in peacetime in order to achieve the ultimate goal of victory in battle. At this level, the military logistics field is preparing for emergency situations through wartime supply level. However, the level of wartime supply should take into account various factors in terms of demand forecasting. In particular, it is difficult to overcome the obstacle of supply shortages caused by a rapid increase in demand during the wartime. Moreover, the pattern of this demand increase is not consistent and can vary depending on the phase of operations and the intensity of engagements. Accordingly, this study assumed a dynamic increase in demand that could occur amid the uncertainty of war and then conducted a simulation by constructing a model between the army fuel supply chain and using Vensim that is one of the system dynamics analysis program. The distribution of the fuel demand and Customer Waiting Time between simulations was estimated based on peacetime parameter data, reflected using command values of PYSD based on the Python environment, and the results were calculated. As a result of the study, it is confirmed that the optimal supply level and fuel inventory amount are different depending on the type of increase in wartime demand, and that the characteristics of wartime demand shock have a significant impact on the military’s wartime inventory management. Based on these research results, it is expected that it will contribute to achieving the goal of optimizing military inventory management to improve wartime demand forecasts and expand the scope of simulation research to optimize wartime supply level.
Abstract
The military has made various efforts to prepare for war even in peacetime in order to achieve the ultimate goal of victory in battle. At this level, the military logistics field is preparing for emergency situations through wartime supply level. However, the level of wartime supply should take into account various factors in terms of demand forecasting. In particular, it is difficult to overcome the obstacle of supply shortages caused by a rapid increase in demand during the wartime. Moreover, the pattern of this demand increase is not consistent and can vary depending on the phase of operations and the intensity of engagements. Accordingly, this study assumed a dynamic increase in demand that could occur amid the uncertainty of war and then conducted a simulation by constructing a model between the army fuel supply chain and using Vensim that is one of the system dynamics analysis program. The distribution of the fuel demand and Customer Waiting Time between simulations was estimated based on peacetime parameter data, reflected using command values of PYSD based on the Python environment, and the results were calculated. As a result of the study, it is confirmed that the optimal supply level and fuel inventory amount are different depending on the type of increase in wartime demand, and that the characteristics of wartime demand shock have a significant impact on the military’s wartime inventory management. Based on these research results, it is expected that it will contribute to achieving the goal of optimizing military inventory management to improve wartime demand forecasts and expand the scope of simulation research to optimize wartime supply level.
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