유동성의 팽창과 수축, 그리고 금융위기
Expansion and Contraction of Aggregate Liquidity and the Financial Crisis
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이 논문은 금융위기의 원인이 되는 유동성의 과도한 팽창과 급격한 축소를 금융활동에 내재하는 근본적 불확실성과 경제의 주기적 불확실성 변화로 설명한다. 근본적 불확실성은 금융의 장기적 유동성 증가를 가져다 주는 사회적 관행과 제도를 발전시킨다. 주기적 불확실성은 이러한 관행과 제도의 발전 속에서 유동성의 변동을 증폭시킨다. 팽창국면에서 주기적 불확실성의 낮은 수준은 개별 유동성 및 경제전체의 총유동성을 과도하게 증가시킨다. 이것은 경제의 과잉상태를 낳고 주기적 불확실성을 높은 수준으로 끌어올린다. 그렇게 되면 개별 유동성과 총유동성은 급속히 축소되고 채무이행이 곤란해져 금융기관이 파산하고 금융시장이 마비되는 금융위기 상태가 초래된다.
Abstract
This paper explains the excessive expansion and rapid contraction of liquidity, which caused the financial crisis, in terms of fundamental uncertainty inherent in financial activities and periodic uncertainty changes in the economy. Fundamental uncertainty leads to the development of social practices and institutions that increase the longterm liquidity. Periodic uncertainty amplifies fluctuations in liquidity in the development of these practices and institutions. In the expansion phase, low levels of cyclical uncertainty excessively increase individual liquidity and aggregate liquidity of the economy as a whole. This creates a state of excess in the economy, raises cyclical uncertainty to a high level. As a result, individual and aggregate liquidity will rapidly decrease, debt obligation may become difficult to meet. If this actually happens, financial institutions will go bankrupt and the financial market will be paralyzed, resulting in a financial crisis.
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