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유동성추구와 금융발전, 그리고 금융위기

Pursuit of Liquidity, Financial Development, and Financial Crisis

조복현
한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2010.11|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제35호|pp. 177-210

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참고문헌

키워드

금융위기불확실성금융발전financial crisisfinancial liberalization유동성추구subprime mortgageliquidity pursuit
주제분류경제학

초록

이 논문은 금융위기의 원인을 금융활동에 내재하는 근본적인 특성인 불확실성과 그로부터 나타나는 금융활동의 유동성 추구 행위에서 찾고자 시도한다. 불확실성은 정보비대칭성과는 달리 금융계약의 미래 약속이행에 대해 두 당사자가 전혀 알지 못하는 상태를 의미한다. 이러한 상태에서 금융계약의 당사자들은, 특히 채권자나 금융투자자들은 자신의 금융자산의 유동성을 증가시키려는 유인을 갖게 된다. 그렇게 되면 금융활동은 유동성을 추구하려는 이 특성에 따라 발전하게 된다. 유동성 추구 행위는 금융거래를 활발하게 만들어 자금순환과 실물투자를 돕기도 하지만, 대체로 자산과 유가증권 투자의 투기적 거래를 부추겨 자산시장에서의 과열과 거품을 형성하게 한다. 또 유동성 추구 결과 증가한 개별 금융자산의 유동성 증가와 위험감소는 사회전체적인 비유동성과 위험의 집계치를 증가시킨다. 즉, 미시적 위험감소가 거시적 위험증대를 이끈다. 이것은 재산권 시장에서의 거품을 초래하게 되는데, 그렇게 되면 금융취약성이 증가하고 거품의 붕괴와 함께 금융위기를 초래하게 된다.

Abstract

This paper aims at elaborating ‘the liquidity pursuit - financial crisis hypothesis’, The hypothesis attributes the causes of the financial crisis to the pursuit of liquidity in the financial activities that comes from uncertainty inherent in financial commitments. Unlike asymmetric information, uncertainty means that both parties of financial commitment simply don't know the possibility of repayment in the future date of maturity. Thus lenders and investors seek to increase the liquidity of their financial assets, that is, to make their financial assets more liquid assets. Then, the financial sector would develop in following the nature of liquidity pursuit in the financial activities. While the pursuit of liquidity in financial activities boosts the financial transacts and promotes the real investment and economic growth, it also encourages speculative trading of property rights and creates overheating and bubble in the property markets. Moreover while the pursuit of liquidity allows individual lender or investors to increases the liquidity of their financial assets, it increases the aggregate illiquidity and risks in the financial sector due to the more risk taking and relaxed standard in loans and investments. In other words, the reduction of micro risks leads to the increase of macro risks.

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