오피스 가격지수의 감정평가 조정 편의 분석
An analysis of Appraisal Smoothing Bias in the Appraisal-Based Office Price Index
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The purpose of this study is to analyze appraisal smoothing bias happened in the office price index based on the appraisal. Most of the office index are based on the appraisal because of insufficient office transaction information. Appraisal based index has a tendency to have an appraisal smoothing bias resulted from attribute of appraisal and smoothing bias may incur a mistake in decision-making process related with real estate market movement and real estate return. In result of the analysis comparing office return index published by the Ministry of Land Transport and Maritime Affairs with transaction based index estimated by Hedonic Price Model using office transacted information during 2001~2008, it was found that volatility of the office price index based on the appraisal is much lower than that of the transaction based index and this result is very similar to the case of the NCREIF Property Index. Especially, in result of the analysis comparing appraisal based office price index with latent real estate price estimated by Latent Variable Model using four real estate indexes included Housing Transaction Price Index and Land Price Index, it was found that appraisal based office price index has the lowest volatility and big gap between latent real estate price. This study is to examine closely appraisal smoothing bias happened in the office price index, which is the only office price index in Korea developed by the government, and it is meaningful that this research is the first trial to understand whole character of the office price index by comparison office price index with transaction based index, other real estate indexes and latent real estate price. This research can contribute to revitalization of the study on the appraisal smoothing bias which has been discussed already in an advanced country. Further intensive study on the appraisal smoothing bias may help improvement of theory reducing bias and development of office price index reflecting faithfully real estate market movement.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze appraisal smoothing bias happened in the office price index based on the appraisal. Most of the office index are based on the appraisal because of insufficient office transaction information. Appraisal based index has a tendency to have an appraisal smoothing bias resulted from attribute of appraisal and smoothing bias may incur a mistake in decision-making process related with real estate market movement and real estate return. In result of the analysis comparing office return index published by the Ministry of Land Transport and Maritime Affairs with transaction based index estimated by Hedonic Price Model using office transacted information during 2001~2008, it was found that volatility of the office price index based on the appraisal is much lower than that of the transaction based index and this result is very similar to the case of the NCREIF Property Index. Especially, in result of the analysis comparing appraisal based office price index with latent real estate price estimated by Latent Variable Model using four real estate indexes included Housing Transaction Price Index and Land Price Index, it was found that appraisal based office price index has the lowest volatility and big gap between latent real estate price. This study is to examine closely appraisal smoothing bias happened in the office price index, which is the only office price index in Korea developed by the government, and it is meaningful that this research is the first trial to understand whole character of the office price index by comparison office price index with transaction based index, other real estate indexes and latent real estate price. This research can contribute to revitalization of the study on the appraisal smoothing bias which has been discussed already in an advanced country. Further intensive study on the appraisal smoothing bias may help improvement of theory reducing bias and development of office price index reflecting faithfully real estate market movement.
참고문헌 (22)
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