아베 총리의 장기 집권과 유권자의 지지

Abstract

The question posed in this paper is “Why was Prime Minister Abe able to remain in power for so long?” and the purpose of the research is to identify the factors that contributed to this. The analysis focused on voter support among the situational factors in the interaction approach. Through the analysis, we found that “passive support” for the LDP led to the LDP’s “overwhelming victory without enthusiasm,” which in turn led to the birth of the ultra-long-term Abe administration. We also clarified that the reason for the long tenure of the second Abe administration can be explained by the “degree of dispersion of opposition parties”: there was no main opposition party and the opposition parties were dispersed among many parties. Even if the LDP cabinet faces criticism from voters due to the LDP's missteps and frequent scandals in the cabinet, the LDP will attempt a pseudo regime change similar to that of the “55-year regime” through a change of presidents. Under the current circumstances in which the opposition parties are divided, a true change of government to the opposition seems impossible. And this may be the “negative legacy” left by the very long Abe administration of 7 years and 8 months, which the Japanese voters elected.