Monetary & fiscal policy implications for rising government debt under labor endogeneity
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Several advanced economies are heading towards a period of fiscal stress; aging population raises government transfers which in turn increases nominal government debt. Existing literature studies how alternative combinations of monetary and fiscal policies can stabilize real debt in the face of exponentially rising transfers. This paper develops an overlapping generations (OG) model with endogenous labor to study the implications of labor supply decisions on the path of real government debt under alternative monetary and fiscal policy combinations and finds that adopting a policy regime where the monetary authority passively targets inflation in the face of rising transfers, even before the economy is at the fiscal limit, might stabilize inflation better than an active monetary regime. The model in the paper has been calibrated to the US economy to demonstrate dynamic effects.
Abstract
Several advanced economies are heading towards a period of fiscal stress; aging population raises government transfers which in turn increases nominal government debt. Existing literature studies how alternative combinations of monetary and fiscal policies can stabilize real debt in the face of exponentially rising transfers. This paper develops an overlapping generations (OG) model with endogenous labor to study the implications of labor supply decisions on the path of real government debt under alternative monetary and fiscal policy combinations and finds that adopting a policy regime where the monetary authority passively targets inflation in the face of rising transfers, even before the economy is at the fiscal limit, might stabilize inflation better than an active monetary regime. The model in the paper has been calibrated to the US economy to demonstrate dynamic effects.
참고문헌 (8)
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