Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy
1
조회
0
다운로드
1
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Ongoing demographic changes have brought about a substantial shift in the size and age composition of the population, which are having a significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
Abstract
Ongoing demographic changes have brought about a substantial shift in the size and age composition of the population, which are having a significant impact on the global economy. Despite potentially grave consequences, demographic changes usually do not take center stage in many macroeconomic policy discussions or debates. This paper illustrates how demographic variables move over time and analyzes how they influence macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, inflation, savings and investment, and fiscal balances, from an empirical perspective. Based on empirical findings—particularly regarding inflation—we discuss their implications on macroeconomic policies, including monetary policy. We also highlight the need to consider the interactions between population dynamics and macroeconomic variables in macroeconomic policy decisions.
참고문헌 (21)
- Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary, "Anderson, D.", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Working paper. 14 (2014), 139
- Bloom, D., "Implications of population aging for economic growth", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 26(4), pp.583~612 (2010)
- Bullard, James, "Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation", Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, pp.419~439 (2012)
- Börsch-Supan, "Aging in Europe: Reforms, International Diversification, and Behavioral Reactions", American Economic Review, 104(5), pp.224~229 (2014)
- Callen, Tim, "How will demographic change affect the global economy", World Economic Outlook (2004)
- Choi, W., "Demographic waves, growth potential, and policy options", presented at 2014 Bank of Korea International Conference (2014)
- Dent, Harry., "Demographic Cliff: How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019" (2014), Penguin
- Fair, Ray, "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations", American Economic Review, 81(5), pp.1276~1294 (1991)
- Heston, Alan, "Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania" (2012)
- The Effects of Demographic Changes on the Real Interest Rate in Japan, "Ikeda, D.", ~, pp.Bank of Japan Working Paper Series. No. 12-E-3 (2012)
- International Monetary Fund, "Implications of aging population will pose crucial policy issues for Japanese authorities", IMF Survey, 29 (2000)
- Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: effects through changes in demand structure, "Katagiri, M. 2012", Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, ~, pp.Discussion Paper. No. 2012-E-3 (2012)
- Lane, Philip R., "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970–2004", Journal of International Economics, 73, pp.223~250 (2007)
- Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model, "Muto, I.", ~, pp.Bank of Japan Working Paper Series. No. 12-E-9 (2012)
- Quantifying Impact of Aging Population on Fiscal Space, "Park, Seok Gil.", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper. 12 (2012), 164
- External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology, "Phillips, S.", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper. 13 (2013), 272
- Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate, "Rachel, L.", Bank of England, ~, pp.Staff Working Paper. No. 571 (2015)
- Romer, D., "Advanced Macroeconomics" (2012), McGraw-Hill
- Terrones, Marco, "The Global House Price Boom", World Economic Outlook (2004)
- World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections, "United Nations.", United Nations, ~, pp.Working Paper No. ESA (2014), P[DOI]
- 2016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change, "Global Monitoring Report 2015", pp.2016, World Bank Group.