Capital flight from China: Estimates and determinants
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In this paper, we tried to estimate the size of China’s capital flight by adjusting the World Bank’s calculation method, and investigated the determinants of China’s capital flight using our estimates. We found that the size of China’s capital flight has steadily increased during the analysis period from 1997 to 2020 while the ratio of capital flight to nominal GDP, excluding price factors, showed a decreasing trend. The results of empirical analysis on the determinants of capital flight using a VAR model showed that the US-China interest rate differential and expected returns on overseas investment had the greatest impact on China’s capital flight, and that inflation was a short-term capital inflow factor and a long-term capital outflow factor. It was also confirmed that China’s anti-corruption campaign had a positive correlation with the capital flight.
Abstract
In this paper, we tried to estimate the size of China’s capital flight by adjusting the World Bank’s calculation method, and investigated the determinants of China’s capital flight using our estimates. We found that the size of China’s capital flight has steadily increased during the analysis period from 1997 to 2020 while the ratio of capital flight to nominal GDP, excluding price factors, showed a decreasing trend. The results of empirical analysis on the determinants of capital flight using a VAR model showed that the US-China interest rate differential and expected returns on overseas investment had the greatest impact on China’s capital flight, and that inflation was a short-term capital inflow factor and a long-term capital outflow factor. It was also confirmed that China’s anti-corruption campaign had a positive correlation with the capital flight.
참고문헌 (14)
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