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여론조사 보도의 긍정적 효과와 부정적 효과 지각이 정치적 행동에 미치는 영향: 염려와 자부심의 매개 효과를 중심으로

The Impacts of Perceived Effects of Polling News

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주제분류신문방송학

초록

본 연구에서는 선거 여론조사 보도가 유권자들에게 미치는 긍정적 영향과 부정적 영향 지각이 유권자들의 선거 관련 논의와 후보에 대한 지지 강화로 이어지는 과정을 2018년 실시된 제7회 전국동시지방선거의 맥락에서 살펴봤다. 서울시 유권자들을 대상으로 선 거 전후 2차로 실시한 서베이 연구 결과(N = 393), 선거 여론조사 보도가 다른 유권자들 에게 부정적인 영향을 미친다는 생각은 염려의 정서를 통해, 그리고 선거 여론조사 보도 가 자신에게 긍정적인 영향을 미친다는 생각은 자부심을 통해 선거 관련 논의 행동으로 이어졌다. 또한 자신이 지지하는 후보가 여론조사 결과 우세로 나타나는 경우에는, 선거 여론조사 보도가 자신에게 긍정적인 영향을 미친다고 생각할수록 자부심이 커지고, 이 는 기존에 지지하던 후보에 대한 지지 강화로 이어졌다. 이와 같은 연구 결과는 선거 여 론조사보도가후보자의자질및주요선거이슈와관련하여유권자자신의판단을돕는 다는 인식이 유권자들의 선거 참여 행동을 촉진할 수 있음을 시사한다.

Abstract

This study investigates how perceived negative and positive effects of poll reports are linked to political behaviors such as engagement in campaign discourse and support for a candidate in the context of the 2018 South Korean local election. The results of two surveys among voters in Seoul (N = 393) demonstrate that perceived negative effect of polling news is positively related to engagement in campaign discourse through anxiety. Perceived positive effect of polling news is indirectly linked to support for candidate through pride particularly for those who support a winning candidate. Implications of the findings and limitations of the study are discussed.

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