바이오에탄올 생산이 미국 옥수수 시장에 미치는 영향분석
Effects of Bio-ethanol Production on the U.S. Corn Market
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This paper analyzes the effect of ethanol production on the U.S. corn market. The data for the analysis is composed of quarterly data of 13 years (53 quarters) from December 1995 to February 2009. A structural model which explains the supply/demand structures of the U.S. corn market is constructed and estimated to investigate the effect of ethanol production on corn market. The elasticity of corn market variables with respect to ethanol production is obtained and dynamic changes in ethanol production are shown. Also, projections were made as to the future of the U.S. corn market using an estimation model with the exogenous variables published on U.S. government reports. The results suggest that ethanol production has a significant effect on U.S. corn market variables and the effect increases more than before. Also, it is shown that the corn equilibrium price will increase during the forecast period.
Abstract
This paper analyzes the effect of ethanol production on the U.S. corn market. The data for the analysis is composed of quarterly data of 13 years (53 quarters) from December 1995 to February 2009. A structural model which explains the supply/demand structures of the U.S. corn market is constructed and estimated to investigate the effect of ethanol production on corn market. The elasticity of corn market variables with respect to ethanol production is obtained and dynamic changes in ethanol production are shown. Also, projections were made as to the future of the U.S. corn market using an estimation model with the exogenous variables published on U.S. government reports. The results suggest that ethanol production has a significant effect on U.S. corn market variables and the effect increases more than before. Also, it is shown that the corn equilibrium price will increase during the forecast period.
참고문헌 (37)
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