옥수수와 밀 선물가격 결정요인 비교분석: 베이지안모델평균을 이용하여
A Study on the Determinants of Corn and Wheat Futures Prices: Using Bayesian Model Averaging
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In this paper, we estimated the factors influencing the futures prices of corn and wheat through Bayesian model averaging. Uncertainty in the grains futures price is due to the fact that various factors other than real factors have a probabilistic impact. By using the results of this study and applying probabilistic factors, the ability to forecast grain futures price could be improved. Bayesian model averaging will help increase confidence in price estimates when used with a single model approach.
Abstract
In this paper, we estimated the factors influencing the futures prices of corn and wheat through Bayesian model averaging. Uncertainty in the grains futures price is due to the fact that various factors other than real factors have a probabilistic impact. By using the results of this study and applying probabilistic factors, the ability to forecast grain futures price could be improved. Bayesian model averaging will help increase confidence in price estimates when used with a single model approach.
참고문헌 (41)
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