본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

농업관측정보의 사회적 후생효과 추정

Estimating the Social Welfare Effects of Agricultural Outlook Information

1

조회

0

다운로드

9

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류농업경제학

초록

Abstract

A measurement scheme of social welfare effects (consumer surplus + producer surplus) associated with agricultural outlook information program, which has been active since 1999, was developed. Applying this scheme, we were able to identify a significant amount of positive social welfare effects of agricultural outlook information. Specifically, we found that the social welfare effects of agricultural outlook information of 14 major agricultural products was 128.8 billion Korean won in 2006, of which consumer surplus is estimated to be 71.6 billion Korean won and producer surplus is estimated to be 57.2 billion Korean won. Recognizing that these estimates are the maximum amount of ex-ante social welfare effects in the sense that all producers adopt outlook information so that an equilibrium of supply and demand can be obtained, we discount this benefit by using a real adoption rate (23.2%). After this discount, the ex-post value of agricultural outlook information of 14 products is estimated to be 52.8 billion Korean won.

참고문헌 (12)

  1. 김관수 등, "농업관측사업의 평가 및 중장기 발전 방안" (2008), 한국농촌경제연구원
  2. 김명환 등, "농업부문 전망모형 구축 연구" (2007)
  3. 김정주, "한국의 닭고기 가격 결정 구조", ~ (2008), 계육산업발전방안 모색 공청회 자료
  4. 이용선 등, "농업관측의 경제적 효과에 관한 연구" (2001), 한국농촌경제연구원
  5. 박현태, "채소종자의 시장동향과 수출 활성화 방안", 농촌경제, 25(2), pp.1~19 (2002), 한국농촌경제연구원
  6. B 보완 연구, "한․미 FTA 품목별 영향 분석 및 국내 대책 수립과 D", pp.2006, 최세균 등
  7. Antonovitz, F., "The Value of Rational Expectations Forecast in a Risky Market: Theoretical and Empirical Approach", American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 66, pp.717~723 (1984)
  8. Devietoglou, E.A, "Correct Public Prediction and the Stability of Equilibrium", Journal of Political Economy, 69, pp.142~161 (1961)
  9. Freebairn, J.W, "The Value and Distribution of the Benefits of Commodity Price Outlook Information", The Economic Record, 52, pp.199~212 (1976)
  10. Hayami, Y, "Social Returns to Public Information Services: Statistical Reporting of US Farm Commodities", American Economic Review, 62, pp.119~130 (1972)
  11. Nieuwoudt, W.L, "Measurement of Importance of Risk on Supply Response of Corn and Soybeans", North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, 10, pp.281~292 (1988)
  12. Rothschild,K.W., "Cobweb Cycles and Partially Correct Forecasting", Journal of Political Economy, 71, pp.300~305 (1964)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (7건)