가금 농장의 특성에 따른 HPAI 위험요인 분석
An Analysis of HPAI Risk Factors by Characteristics of Poultry Farm
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초록
본 연구는 우리나라 HPAI 발생의 위험지역을 파악하고 방역지역의 설정에 대한 타당성을 분석하고자 HPAI의 위험요소를 농장의 사육규모, 밀집사육정도, 방역지역 범위내의 농장특성, 지세, 도로망을 비롯한 지리적 특성 등으로 구분하여 이항로짓모형을 이용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 산란계, 육용오리, 종오리는 사육마릿수가 많을수록 발병확률이 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 육계는 오히려 낮을수록 발병확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 방역지역의 설정 기준에 따른 HPAI 발생확률은 농장 밀집정도와 사육 밀집정도에 따라 축종별, 방역지역대별로 상이하게 나타났다. 지리적 특성 중 철새도래지는 모든 축종에서 HPAI 발병확률을 높이는 것으로 나타으며, 농장과 도로, 사료공장, 도계(압)장, 하천ㆍ호수와의 거리가 미치는 영향은 축종별로 상이한 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to identify the risk areas of HPAI in Korea and toanalyze the feasibility of establishing an epidemic prevention zone. The geographicalinfluences of HPAI are compared and analyzed by species, and the riskfactors are analyzed based on classification of farm size, farm density, the characteristicsof farms in the area of protection, geographical features, road networksand geographical characteristics by using the binomial logit model. For farms laying hens, commercial ducks, and parent duck stock, the higher thenumber of marrows, the higher the likelihood of the outbreak, while the lowerthe ratio of broiler chicks, the higher the probability of onset. Among the geographicalfeatures, migratory birds are shown to increase the probability of developingHPAI in all species. However, other variables show different results dependingon poultry species.
참고문헌 (15)
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