A Missed Opportunity in the South Korean 'Nordpolitik', 1988-1992
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This paper conducts a 'counterfactual' analysis on the South Korean 'nordpolitik' during 1988-1992. The case in point is Japan's brief rapprochement with North Korea in 1990 in the midst of South Korea's diplomatic engagement with the USSR and East European countries in the name of 'nordpolitik'. Using a simple two-party game theory, this paper identifies the prisoner's dilemma in the North Korean nuclear crisis and argues that the U.S. should have pushed the Japanese government to normalize, at least more actively seek, a diplomatic relationship with North Korea while persuading the South Korean government to accept it. The three governments should have coordinated the policies toward North Korea in a way that could have provided North Korea with higher opportunity costs of pursuing brinkmanship.
Abstract
This paper conducts a 'counterfactual' analysis on the South Korean 'nordpolitik' during 1988-1992. The case in point is Japan's brief rapprochement with North Korea in 1990 in the midst of South Korea's diplomatic engagement with the USSR and East European countries in the name of 'nordpolitik'. Using a simple two-party game theory, this paper identifies the prisoner's dilemma in the North Korean nuclear crisis and argues that the U.S. should have pushed the Japanese government to normalize, at least more actively seek, a diplomatic relationship with North Korea while persuading the South Korean government to accept it. The three governments should have coordinated the policies toward North Korea in a way that could have provided North Korea with higher opportunity costs of pursuing brinkmanship.
참고문헌 (14)
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