북한 경제특구 확대의 평가와 향후과제
Economic Opening of the Hermit Kingdom: Current Status and Future Tasks of the New SEZs in North Korea
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본고는 7.1경제관리개선조치와 함께 비록 제한적이지만 과거와는 확연히 다른 관리 및 운영체제를 도입한 북한의 경제특구 확대정책의 추진 현황과 정책적 변화를 분석하였다. 또한 신의주와 개성지역 경제특구의 발전 가능성을 평가하고, 해외투자 활성화를 위해 북한과 남한, 주변국들이 해결하여야 할 과제를 논의하였다. 개성공단과 신의주특구는 국내 경제와 외부시장과의 중계거점 역할과 실험적 경제정책의 시행을 위한 도구적 기능, 그리고 주변지역으로 성장 동력의 확산을 유도하는 개발축 기능을 어느 정도 기대할 수 있기 때문에 북한의 여타 지역을 개방하는 것보다 성공 가능성이 높은 것으로 평가된다. 따라서 인프라 환경을 개선하고 외국기업의 투자심리를 위축시키는 각종 정치ㆍ군사적 불안정성 완화를 위한 북한당국의 태도변화가 동반될 경우, 산업ㆍ물류 결합형 특구 또는 인근 배후 접경지의 자원을 활용하는 경제특구로 발전할 잠재력을 보유하고 있다. 그러나 북한이 대외관계 개선과 적극적인 경제개혁으로 국제사회의 북한에 대한 부정적인 인식을 변화시키지 못할 경우에는 경제특구 확대를 통한 외자유치와 기술도입이라는 목표는 실현되기 어려울 것이다. 이러한 배경에서 본고는 북한의 최근 경제정책 변화 움직임을 분석하는 큰 틀에서 개성공단과 신의주특구의 가능성과 문제점, 향후 추진방향, 활성화를 위한 북한의 정책적 과제, 남북경협과 주변국의 역할 등을 살펴보기로 한다.
Abstract
Establishing new SEZs, along with improving foreign relationships, is treated as the most important policy measure for opening the North Korean economy. Recently, North Korea has shown its interest in promoting two new SEZs, the Gaeseong industrial park and the Shinuiju special administrative region. Thanks to their locational merits, Gaeseong and Shinuiju have the potential to develop into thriving SEZs through subregional economic cooperation with bordering areas. Although the path toward success for North Korea's new SEZs is full of hurdles, it would result in a major boost to the country's economic rehabilitation and create a spillover effect for the rest of North Korea. In this context, this article examines the issues regarding North Korea's new special economic zones. It presents the recent progress and institutional arrangements of the Shinuiju SEZ and Gaeseong industrial park, while also exploring their potential to facilitate North Korea's economic rehabilitation and inter-Korean cooperation. This article also endeavors to address major problems that North Korea needs to resolve in order to activate its new SEZs.
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