OECD 국가에서 재정지출이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향
Government Spending Shocks, the CurrentAccount and the Real Exchange Ratein OECD Countries
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초록
본 연구는 패널 VAR 모형을 이용하여 20개 OECD 국가에서 재정지출 충격이 경상수지와 실질환율에 미치는 영향에 관한 일반적인 실증분석 결과를 얻고자 하였다. 또한 그룹별 추정을 통해 국가 규모와 개방도에 따라 재정지출 충격이 미치는 영향이 어떻게 변하는가를 분석하였다. 실증분석 결과는 다음과 같다. (1) 20개국을 이용한 분석에서는 재정지출 충격이 경상수지를 뚜렷하게 악화시키나 실질환율 절하 효과는 확실하지 않다. (2) 개방도가 큰 경우 더 뚜렷한 실질환율 절하 효과를 볼 수 있으나 경상수지 악화는 더 일시적이다. (3) 국가규모가 큰 경우 경상수지 악화 효과가 더 뚜렷하게 나타난다. 재정확장 정책 후 실질환율 절하 현상은 전통적인 이론들에 부합하지 않지만, 국가 특성에 따른 차이는 기존 이론에 어느 정도 부합한다고 볼 수 있고 향후 이론적인 분석에서 국가별 특성의 차이를 고려하는 것이 중요함을 시사하고 있다.
Abstract
This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model, in order to provide empirical stylized facts. The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and the influence of openness and size on the effects of government spending shocks. The main findings are as follows. First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant. Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness. Third, the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than in the group of small countries. Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories, the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country.
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