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Non-Tariff Trade Policy in the Context of Deep Trade Integration: An Ex-Post Gravity Model Application to the EU-South Korea Agreement

Julia Grübler|Oliver Reiter
대외경제정책연구원 (Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP))|2021.03|East Asian Economic Review|제25권 제1호|pp. 33-71|DOI https://dx.doi.org/10.11644/KIEP.EAER.2021.25.1.390

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South KoreaFree Trade AgreementEU중력모형Gravity ModelTrade Policy무역정책무역협정
주제분류경제학

초록

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of nontariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EUSouth Korea agreement, which is the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

Abstract

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of nontariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EUSouth Korea agreement, which is the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

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관련 논문AI추천

New Trade Restrictive Measures and Exports: Evidence from South Korea장용준, 현혜정경제연구소 · Seoul Journal of Economics2019 · 제32권 제2호Impacts of SPS and TBT measures on Korean Agricultural Exports: An Analysis by Disaggregated Products오새라, 이상현, 조성주한국국제통상학회 · 국제통상연구2019 · 제24권 제1호The Impact of FTAs on Bilateral Trade Using Gravity Model: The Cases of Korea and IndonesiaRostamaji Korniawan동남아연구소 · 동남아연구2013 · 제22권 제3호한국의 양자 무역비용이 수출에 미치는 영향: 산업별‧소득수준별 이질효과신현주경영경제연구소 · 아태비즈니스연구2025 · 제16권 제3호Economic Assessment of Korea-EU FTA using a CGE Model with FDI고종환EU연구소 · EU연구2014 · 제36호Potential Effect of Korea's FTA with its Trading Partners: Estimation by Augmented Gravity Models with Panel Data이두원한국경제학회 · The Korean Economic Review2005 · 제21권 제2호

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