중국과 브라질의 대두 무역 동향 분석과 예측
The trend and the prediction of Soybean trade between China and Brazil
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China is a major importer of soybean taking about 60% of world soybean trade. China's soybean import growth has continued steadily over more the 20 years. This is due to the decrease in the rural population, changes in the livestock industry policy, and changes in dietary caused by urbanization and income increase. Brazil is the main exporter of soybean to China. The amount of soybean imported from Brazil has been increasing significantly in last decade. The production costs per soybean unit in Brazil are relatively inexpensive and the Brazilian soybean has higher protein content than American soybean. These are the main reasons of the increasing Brazilian soybean exports to China. However, it is predicted that China's soybean demand growth rate will decrease because of the decrease in the population growth rate and the increase in vegetarian diet. And in Brazil, even though the area harvested has been expanding and pesticide usage has been increasing, that agricultural productivity has not reached that level. In this paper, we consider various variables surrounding soybean trade between China and Brazil. Especially, the future changes in China’s soybean demand are forecasted by using STELLA model applying the relationship between the meat consumption and the increase in soybean demand using.
Abstract
China is a major importer of soybean taking about 60% of world soybean trade. China's soybean import growth has continued steadily over more the 20 years. This is due to the decrease in the rural population, changes in the livestock industry policy, and changes in dietary caused by urbanization and income increase. Brazil is the main exporter of soybean to China. The amount of soybean imported from Brazil has been increasing significantly in last decade. The production costs per soybean unit in Brazil are relatively inexpensive and the Brazilian soybean has higher protein content than American soybean. These are the main reasons of the increasing Brazilian soybean exports to China. However, it is predicted that China's soybean demand growth rate will decrease because of the decrease in the population growth rate and the increase in vegetarian diet. And in Brazil, even though the area harvested has been expanding and pesticide usage has been increasing, that agricultural productivity has not reached that level. In this paper, we consider various variables surrounding soybean trade between China and Brazil. Especially, the future changes in China’s soybean demand are forecasted by using STELLA model applying the relationship between the meat consumption and the increase in soybean demand using.
참고문헌 (20)
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