Evaluation of Intervention Policies for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Seoul/Gyeonggi Region through a Model Simulation

Abstract

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy of intervention policies on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) dissemination. Materials and Methods: An age-structured compartmental model for the COVID-19 outbreak was proposed to predict the im pact of control measures in the Seoul/Gyeonggi region. The model was calibrated based on actual data and realistic situations,including daily vaccine doses, proportion of delta variant cases, and confirmed cases by age. We simulated different scenarios fornon-pharmaceutical interventions by varying social distancing and school attendance strategies. Results: Two-step mitigation of social distancing without in-person classes would result in a rapid increase in confirmed cases upto 10000 but would keep severe cases within the manageable range of the health care system. The overall impact of taking downthe distancing level by one step with twice the increase in contacts at school was comparable to the above scenario. Implementa tion of two-step mitigation of social distancing along with a two-fold increase in contacts among the school-age group would dra matically increase confirmed and severe cases by over 80000 and 100, respectively, as early as the beginning of December. Thispolicy would cause the situation to spiral out of control, considering the scale of the response and time to prepare. On the otherhand, the burden on the current healthcare system caused by two-step mitigation of social distancing and 40% increased contactsin the school-age group was manageable if prepared. Conclusion: A compromise between social distancing and school attendance policy and timely preparations for the spread ofCOVID-19 are required.