The Effect of Model for End-Stage Liver Disease 3.0 on Disparities between Patients with and without Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Korea
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Purpose: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 3.0 has recently been suggested for determining liver allocation. We aimed to apply MELD 3.0 to a Korean population and to discover differences between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and Methods: This study is a retrospective study of 2203 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis at Severance Hospital between 2016–2022. Harrell’s concordance index was used to validate the ability of MELD scores to predict 90-day survival. Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.9 months, 90-day survival was 61.9% in all patients, 50.4% in the HCC patients, and 74.8% in the non-HCC patients. Within the HCC patients, the concordance index for patients on the waitlist was 0.653 using MELD, which increased to 0.753 using MELD 3.0. Among waitlisted patients, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients with MELD scores of 31–37 only (69.7% vs. 30.0%, p=0.001). Applying MELD 3.0, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients across a wider range of MELD 3.0 scores, compared to MELD, with MELD 3.0 scores of 21–30 and 31–37 (82.0% vs. 72.5% and 72.3% vs. 24.3%, p=0.02 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusion: MELD 3.0 predicted 90-day survival of the HCC patients more accurately than original MELD score; however, the disparity between HCC and non-HCC patients increased, particularly in patients with MELD scores of 21–30. Therefore, a novel exception score is needed or the current exception score system should be modified.
Abstract
Purpose: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 3.0 has recently been suggested for determining liver allocation. We aimed to apply MELD 3.0 to a Korean population and to discover differences between patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Materials and Methods: This study is a retrospective study of 2203 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis at Severance Hospital between 2016–2022. Harrell’s concordance index was used to validate the ability of MELD scores to predict 90-day survival. Results: During a mean follow-up of 12.9 months, 90-day survival was 61.9% in all patients, 50.4% in the HCC patients, and 74.8% in the non-HCC patients. Within the HCC patients, the concordance index for patients on the waitlist was 0.653 using MELD, which increased to 0.753 using MELD 3.0. Among waitlisted patients, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients with MELD scores of 31–37 only (69.7% vs. 30.0%, p=0.001). Applying MELD 3.0, the 90-day survival of HCC patients was worse than that of non-HCC patients across a wider range of MELD 3.0 scores, compared to MELD, with MELD 3.0 scores of 21–30 and 31–37 (82.0% vs. 72.5% and 72.3% vs. 24.3%, p=0.02 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusion: MELD 3.0 predicted 90-day survival of the HCC patients more accurately than original MELD score; however, the disparity between HCC and non-HCC patients increased, particularly in patients with MELD scores of 21–30. Therefore, a novel exception score is needed or the current exception score system should be modified.
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