기업의 장기적인 조세회피 예측을 위한 유효세율 측정치의 분석
An Analysis of the Effective Tax Rates Measure of Long-run Corporate Tax Avoidance
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초록
본 연구는 장기적인 조세회피에 대한 측정치를 분석하며, 장기적인 조세회피는 장기간에 걸쳐 법인세비용을 법인세비용차감전순이익으로 나눈 비율을 낮게 부담할 수 있는 능력으로 정의한다. 장기적인 조세회피를 측정하는 유효세율 측정치는 회계유효세율, 일시적 차이를 반영한 당기유효세율과 현금유효세율을 사용한다. 본 연구는 장기유효세율을 이용하여 특정 기업이 10년 동안의 장기간에 걸쳐 조세를 회피할 수 있는 정도와 장기유효세율이 장기적인 조세회피를 예측하는지 여부를 검증한다. 본 연구의 분석결과는 조세회피에 있어 상당한 횡단면적인 변동이 있다는 것을 발견하였다. 또한, 장기유효세율 측정치로 사용된 회계유효세율, 당기유효세율과 현금유효세율이 장기적인 조세회피에 대한 정확한 측정치가 아닐 수 있다는 발견하였다. 반면, 연차유효세율 분석에 있어 장기적인 조세회피에 대한 지속성에 대한 증거를 일부 제시하였으나 이러한 지속성은 비대칭적인 것으로 나타났으며, 연차유효세율이 높은 경우 연차유효세율 낮은 경우 보다 더 지속적이라는 것을 발견하였다.
Abstract
This paper analyzes a measure of corporate tax avoidance for relations between annual effective tax rates and long-run effective tax rates over long time periods. Long-run effective taxes rates are based on the ability to pay a low amount of income tax expenses of pre-tax earing. This paper uses effective tax rates of GAAP ETR, Current ETR and Cash ETR proxies for measuring annual effective tax rates. Consequently, this paper uses the long-run effective tax rate to examine the extent to which some firms are able to avoid taxes over periods as long as ten years, and how predictive one-year tax rates are for long-run tax avoidance. This paper finds there is considerable cross-sectional variation in tax avoidance. The result also indicate that GAAP ETR, Current ETR and Cash ETR proxies for annual effective tax rates are not very good predictors of long-run effective tax rate, and thus, are not accurate proxies for long-run tax avoidance. While there is some evidence of persistence in annual effective tax rate of long-run tax avoidance, the persistence is asymmetric. Additional, high annual effective tax rates are more persistent than are low annual effective tax rates.
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