유효세율을 사용한 조세회피 대체측정치의 평가
An Evaluation of Alternative Measures of Tax Avoidance Using Effective Tax Rates
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초록
본 연구는 연차유효세율과 장기유효세율을 비교함으로써 기업이 장기적으로 조세를 회피할 수 있는 정도와 연차유효세율이 장기적인 조세회피를 예측하는지 여부를 검증한다. 또한, 본 연구는 재무제표 자료를 기초로 산정한 대체적인 유효세율 측정치(재무유효세율)가 세무자료를 기초로 산정한 유효세율(세무유효세율)을 예측하는데 있어 신뢰성 있는 측정치인지 여부와 재무유효세율 측정치들이 세무유효세율을 어느 정도 정확하게 예측하는지를 검증한다. 본 연구에서는 조세회피를 기업이 장기간(즉 10년)에 걸쳐 유효세율을 감소시키는 모든 행위로 광범위하게 정의하고, 기업의 장기적인 조세회피를 측정할 수 있는 장기유효세율 측정치를 도입하였다. 연차유효세율과 장기유효세율은 재무제표 자료를 기초로 산정한 회계유효세율, 당기유효세율, 현금유효세율 측정치와 세무자료를 기초로 산정한 세무유효세율 측정치를 사용하였다. 본 연구는 유가증권시장에 상장된 1,750개 기업의 재무자료와 세무자료를 사용하였다. 재무유효세율과 세무유효세율이 연차유효세율뿐만 아니라 장기유효세율에서도 높은 상관관계를 가지고, 신뢰성계수가 안정적으로 높은 것으로 보아 재무유효세율 대체측정치가 세무유효세율을 어느 정도 정확하게 예측하는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
In this study, we verify the degree of tax avoidance and whether annual effective tax rates can forecast long-run tax avoidance by comparatively analyzing annual effective tax rates and effective tax rates for long-run. This research identified that general effective tax rates measures based on financial statements data can predict effective tax rates based on tax data properly and reliable. Also, we verified that how accurate effective tax rates for tax predicted by the estimated effective tax rates measures based on financial statements data is. This research gives broad definition of tax avoidance as a company’s every action to reduce effective tax rates over 10 years and introduce the effective tax rates for long-run measures which is able to measure a company’s tax avoidance for long-run. For annual effective tax rates and long-run effective tax rates, we used effective tax rates for fiscal, net effective tax rates, effective tax rates for cash measures which are calculated based on financial statements data and effective tax rates for tax calculated based on tax data. In this study, we used the financial statements data and tax data of 1,750 sample firms taken public in the stock market. Financial effective tax rates based on financial statements data and effective tax rates for tax based on tax data have very close interrelationship not only in annual effective tax rates but also in effective tax rates for long-run. Reliability coefficients of them shows stable high value indicating financial effective tax rates alternative measures predicts effective tax rates for tax in certain level of precision.
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