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희망적 사고가 투자 대안 선택에 미치는 영향

Effects of Investors' Wishful Thinking on Preferences for Financial Products

천성용|강현모
한국산업경영학회 (Korean Association Of Industrial Business Administrarion)|2010.05|경영연구 (Journal of Business Research)|제25권 제2호|pp. 253-277|DOI 10.22903/jbr.2010.25.2.253

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참고문헌

키워드

애착Attachment투자기간Wishful ThinkingFinancial Product희망적사고금융 상품자금원천Investment PeriodMoney Origin
주제분류경영학

초록

대부분의 사람들은 스포츠 경기의 승패, 선거 결과, 자신의 미래 등과 같이 불확실한 사건을 예측할 때 객관적인 사실을 근거로 합리적으로 예측을 하는 것이 아니라 자신이 바라는 대로, 원하는 대로 결과를 예측하는, 희망적 사고(wishful thinking)를 하는 경향이 있다. 본 연구에서는 희망적 사고에 대한 기존 연구들을 바탕으로 사람들이 언제 희망적 사고를 하는 지, 희망적 사고에 어떠한 요인들이 영향을 주는 지에 대해 살펴보았다. 그리고 이를 투자자들의 투자 대안 선택에 적용하여 자금원천에 따라 장·단기 금융 상품에 대한 선호가 어떻게 달라지는 지 알아보았다. 자금마련에 들인 노력 정도를 기준으로 적금자금과 주식투자이익자금으로 자금원천을 다르게 하고, 투자기간을 단기투자(3개월)와 장기투자(3년)로 다르게 할 경우 불확실성이 큰 장기투자에서 희망적 사고를 하는 경향이 더 강하게 나타날 것으로 예상하였다. 실험 결과, 장기투자 시 고위험·고수익(High Risk - High Return) 상품을 저위험·저수익(Low Risk - Low Return) 상품보다 더 선호하는 경향이 나타났으며, 장기투자 시 고위험·고수익 상품을 더 선호하는 경향이 주식투자이익자금 보다 적금자금에서 더 강하게 나타났다. 마지막으로 본 연구결과의 이론적 시사점과 향후 연구방향에 관해 논의하였다.

Abstract

Wishful thinking is a phenomenon in which individuals systematically overestimate the probability that good things will happen to them. Previous studies of the effects of wishful thinking on people’s predictions have demonstrated that people have a tendency to overestimate the probability of desirable events when probability is uncertain and people have strong emotional attachment to an object. We suggest that investors' wishful thinking depends on uncertainty of investment returns and emotional attachment to the money origins. Based on extant research about wishful thinking, we propose two hypotheses and test the hypotheses. The experimental study examines how money origins affect the choice between high-risk-high-return and low-risk-low-return alternatives in short-term and long-term investment situations. The respondents are more willing to invest in a risky financial product in the long-term condition than in the short-term condition. On the other hand, respondents are more willing to invest in a conservative financial product in the short-term condition than in the long-term condition. Also, the effects of money origins on preferences for investment alternatives interacted with the time horizon of investments.

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