항공수요에 따른 항공부문 온실가스 예측에 관한 연구

Abstract

Green House Gas (GHG) emissions have been increasing rapidly every year, thus introduction of GHGs mitigation plan has been progressed actively. In the light of that, International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has established implementation plan for GHGs emissions reduction and EU will put into practice EU-ETS from 2012. In Korea, GHGs mitigation policy is being pursued through GHGs target management and voluntary signing of agreement by airlines to reduce GHGs. The impacts of these GHGs policies are expected to the Korea’s aviation industry directly and indirectly. In order to respond proactively to the international environmental policies and GHGs mitigation implementation actions, forecast of future GHGs emissions in the aviation sector should be preceded and then country’s systematic GHGs management should be in effect on the basis of this forecast. GHGs emission in aviation sector is estimated in the previous studies, however the methodology and the scope of forecast of this study is different from previous researches as this paper is derived from the highly reliable data and rational estimation methodology. 2006 International Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guideline is utilized in the study and Tier 2 level emission is calculated based on statistics of airlines’ activities. Moreover, accuracy and reliability of aviation GHGs emissions estimation is achieved through both regression analysis and basic unit approach by each aircraft type, and comparing those results.