문재인 정부 대북정책의 과제와 전망: 한반도 비핵화와 평화체제의 비전을 중심으로

Abstract

Moon Jae-in’s new Korean government aims to stabilize the precarious security situation on the Korean peninsula and make ‘peaceful Korean Peninsula without nuclear weapons’. In order to realize the goals, the policy paradigm shifts from “early unification” to “active peace” and the policy keynote shifts from “strategic patience” to “strategic engagement”. It is difficult to expect North Korea to change its attitude toward the nuclear issue amid the lack of trust between the two Koreas. Under the judgement, the new government’s policy toward North Korea is likely to take a stance on the future-backward method of the inter-Korean dialogue, leaving it out of the context of the future-forward method. For North Korean nuclear issue being resolved diplomatically, the North must accept the security and security trade-offs by the soft balance formula, as agreed by ‘the 9.19 Joint Statement’. However, the North is demanding ‘5 requirements for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’ in returns for its throwing up the nuclear weapons program by hard balance formula. In reality, it is unlikely that the Moon’s government will accept the security and security trade-offs posed by North Korea’s demand amid the enhanced development of its nuclear weapons program. In order to diplomatically resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, it is only natural that North Korea gives up its hard balance formula and accepts the soft balance formula. In order to allow the North to accept its soft balance formula, it is inevitable that certain sanctions and coercive actions will be imposed on North Korea. To solve the North Korean nuclear issue, the new administration is expected to adopt a comprehensive solution toward North Korea including an internationalization of North Korea, diplomatic dialogues based on military deterrence. In addition, it is expected to pursue a peaceful settlement by contracting the Inter-Korean Basic Agreement and establishing the Korean Common Wealth for permanent peace on Korean peninsula.