남북한 환경협력의 전망과 이행전략: 내재적 특성과 구조 변동을 중심으로

Abstract

This paper illuminates the strategic values and prospect of the inter-Korean environmental cooperation. To achieve the analytical goal, the paper focuses on nature and the structural shift that promote the environmental cooperation. In addition, the paper pinpoints a series of projects that can be proceeded in the short-term, mid-term, and long-term, based on the compatibility with the size of project and compatibility with sanctions against DPRK. The strategic value of environmental cooperation as a negotiation agenda lies in its controllability, reciprocity, and issue-linkage. Specifically, the environmental cooperation is easily compatible with the tit-for-tat strategy by sub-dividing into a series of projects, which enables the South Korean side to control the phase of cooperation. In a similar vein, many environmental projects can be linked to other inter-Koreans cooperation issues and thereby enhance South Korea’s negotiation leverage. Furthermore, considering many pieces of evidence, the North Korean side seems to strongly want the environmental cooperation. Despite the strategic value of environmental cooperation, the past South Korean regimes failed to push forward the environmental cooperation by inflexibly liking it with the security issues. However, incumbent Moon Jae-In government’s policy stance toward North tends to de-link it to a certain degree. Moreover, the emergence of Paris Agreement and South Korea’s commitment to its NDC enhances the expected benefits from the inter-Korean cooperation. Two dimensions of the structural shift, considered together, heighten the prospects of inter-Korean relations. Considering the strategic circumstance, the paper concludes that at least the short-term projects laid out in this article need to be discussed and negotiated in the 2nd round of summit between President Moon and Chairman Kim scheduled in the upcoming Fall.