한반도 단위의 환경자원 소비량 추이와 예측
Trend and Prediction of Environmental Resources Consumption in the Korean Peninsula
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본 연구에서는 남한과 북한의 자료를 통합하여 한반도 단위로 식량과 에너지 자원 소비량 추이를살펴보았고, 여러 Case를 생성하여 통합 이후 한반도의 식량과 에너지 자원 소비량을 예측하고 자원 관리방향을 제시하였다. 1990년대 이후 북한의 일인당 식량 공급량, 열량 공급량, 단백질 공급량은 모두 남한, 동아시아, 세계보다 낮으며, 동물성 식품군 공급 비중도 남한, 동아시아, 세계보다 매우 낮은 상황이다. 통합 이후 북한이 2011년 남한 수준으로 식량을 소비한다면, 2055년까지의 예상 통합 인구가 최대일 때통합 한반도의 식량 소비량은 2011년 통합 소비량에 비해 약 25% 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 사전에 통합 이후 안정적인 식량 공급과 환경 영향 최소화를 위해 소비를 줄이고 농업 생산성을 향상시키기 위한 방안을 마련해야 한다. 북한의 에너지 소비량은 남한에 비해 매우 적으며, 지난 15년간 석탄 사용 구성비가 매우 높았다. 북한의 일인당 에너지 소비량이 2011년 남한 수준으로 증가하면, 통합 한반도의 에너지 소비량은 남한에서의 증가분을 제외하더라도 2011년 통합 한반도의 에너지 소비량에 비해 약 45% 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 에너지 소비에 의한 환경 영향을 최소화하기 위해 북한의 석탄 구성비를 줄여나가는 방향의 에너지 계획을 수립하고 에너지 설비 확충에 선진 기술 적용하는 방안을 마련해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
Trends of food and energy consumptions in South Korea, North Korea, and the Korean Peninsula were shown and consumptions of food and energy for the integrated Korean Peninsula with several Cases were predicted, and the directions for the environmental resources management were suggested in this study. The Food Supply Quantity, the Protein Supply Quantity, and the Food Supply of North Korea were less than those of South Korea, the Eastern Asia, and World after 1990s. However, it is expected that the food consumption in North Korea will increase, if two Koreas are integrated. If the Food Supply Quantity of North Korea is the same as that of South Korea with the maximum projected population of integrated two Koreas by 2055, the food consumption in the Korean Peninsula would increase by 25% compared with the 2011 food consumption of integrated two Koreas. Thus, the choice of diet should be carefully considered and the increase of agricultural productivity is required. Energy consumption in North Korea is very small comparing to that of South Korea and fraction of coal in energy usage of North Korea is very high. If the energy consumption per capita of North Korea after integration be the same as that of South Korea in 2011, the energy consumption in the Korean Peninsula would increase by 45% compared with the 2011 energy consumption of integrated two Koreas. To minimize the environmental effects caused by energy consumption, the energy plan with the reduced fraction of coal in energy supply of North Korea should be adopted and advanced technology with higher efficiency should be applied to establish or expand the energy facility in North Korea.
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