생태계서비스 계정화를 위한 홍수의 잠재적 피해 평가
Assessing Potential Damage of Flood Events for Ecosystem Service Account
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초록
생태계는 인간에게 다양한 방식으로 혜택을 제공한다. 생태계서비스는 이러한 개념을 포함하고 있으며, 이를 평가하는 것은 그 혜택을 정량화하거나 가치화하는 과정을 포함한다. 생태계서비스 계정화는 국가계정과마찬가지로 측정된 결과를 지속해서 모니터링하고, 연간 변화량을 파악하게 함으로써 정책 의사결정을 지원할수 있는 객관적 자료로 활용될 수 있는 체계이다. 기후변화와 함께 홍수발생 빈도와 크기가 증가함으로써 자연 기반의 홍수 완화 기능에 대한 관심이 증가하고있다. 생태계가 제공하는 이러한 혜택적 측면에 대해 계정화를 고려하여 평가하기 위해서는 생태계의 ‘잠재적공급능력’, ‘인간의 수요’ 그리고 ‘양적 흐름(이용량)’ 세 가지 요소와 그들 사이의 관계를 고려해야 한다. 기존연구에서는 홍수조절에 기여하는 생태계 공급능력과 그로 인해 혜택을 받는 수요에 대한 정의 및 방법론 연구가 일부 진행되었다. 그러나 그 흐름에 대한 실제적 정량화 및 경제적 평가가 이뤄지지 않아 연구 결과의 활용성이 제한적이다. 본 연구에서는 유역 상류의 홍수조절 생태계서비스 흐름을 홍수범람 예상지역을 대상으로 토지특성별 피해함수값을 적용하여 화폐 가치로 그 혜택을 추산하였다. 연구 결과 재현기간 500년 빈도 강우 시 국가가 받는 유역상류의 생태계가 하류지역의 홍수범람을 조절하는 생태계서비스 혜택은 연간 총 25조 4,571억원으로 산정되었다. 발생확률을 고려하여 계정화를 위해 1년 단위의 혜택으로 산정하면 약 509억원이다. 이러한 결과는 유역 상류 생태계 전체가 홍수 기능을 수행하고 있다는 전제와 함께 기존 방재시설에 대한 기능이 이행되지 않는 상황을 가정하고 있다. 향후 연구에서는 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 기존 방재시설을 고려한 서비스 흐름 측정과 다양한 홍수빈도와 발생확률을 고려한 추가 연구가 필요하다.
Abstract
Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of floods, and damage to life and property caused by floods is increasing. Among various alternatives for flood mitigation, interest in nature-based flood mitigation is gradually increasing. Ecosystem service accounting is being discussed internationally for the purpose of maintaining and preserving natural ecosystems with flood control functions. In order to account for ecosystem services, evaluation of the relevant services must be conducted first. For evaluation, the three elements of 'potential supply capacity of the ecosystem', 'human demand', and 'flow', which is the amount of benefits, and the relationship between them must be considered. In existing flood control ecosystem service evaluation studies, definitions and methodological studies on ecosystem supply capacity contributing to flood control and demand benefiting from it have been limited. However, actual quantification and monetary evaluation of service flow have not been conducted, so the usability of research results in terms of ecosystem accounting is low. In this study, flood control ecosystem service flow in a national basin was estimated in monetary value by applying a flood-depth damage function by land characteristics to areas expected to be flooded. The study results show that the ecosystem service benefits of the upstream ecosystem of the river basin, which controls flooding in the downstream area, received by the country with a 500-year rainfall frequency are estimated to be a total of 25 trillion 4571 billion per year. If the benefits are calculated as annual units for accounting by considering the occurrence probability, it is approximately 50.9 billion won. These results assume that the entire upstream ecosystem of the river basin performs flood functions and that the functions of existing disaster prevention facilities are not being performed. In future studies, to solve these problems, it is necessary to measure the service flow considering existing disaster prevention facilities and conduct research considering various flood frequencies and occurrence probabilities.
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