본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Probability or Reasoning: Current Thinking and Realistic Strategies for Improved Medical Decisions

2

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류가정의학

초록

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practicethrough methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulatingfactors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicianscould avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively,they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature reviewof cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could beeffectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimationmight not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decisionmaking (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy.

Abstract

A prescriptive model approach in decision making could help achieve better diagnostic accuracy in clinical practicethrough methods that are less reliant on probabilistic assessments. Various prescriptive measures aimed at regulatingfactors that influence heuristics and clinical reasoning could support clinical decision-making process. Clinicianscould avoid time-consuming decision-making methods that require probabilistic calculations. Intuitively,they could rely on heuristics to obtain an accurate diagnosis in a given clinical setting. An extensive literature reviewof cognitive psychology and medical decision-making theory was performed to illustrate how heuristics could beeffectively utilized in daily practice. Since physicians often rely on heuristics in realistic situations, probabilistic estimationmight not be a useful tool in everyday clinical practice. Improvements in the descriptive model of decisionmaking (heuristics) may allow for greater diagnostic accuracy.

참고문헌 (64)

  1. Graber ML, "Diagnostic error in internal medicine", Arch Intern Med, 165, pp.1493~1499 (2005)
  2. Zhang J, "Medical error: is the solution medical or cognitive?", J Am Med Inform Assoc, 9(6 Suppl), pp.S75~S77 (2002)
  3. Sox HC, "Medical decision making" (2006), American College of Physicians
  4. Patel VL, "Emerging paradigms of cognition in medical decision-making", J Biomed Inform, 35, pp.52~75 (2002)
  5. Huber O, "Active information search and complete information presentation in naturalistic risky decision tasks", Acta Psychol, 95, pp.15~29 (1997)
  6. Baron J, "Thinking and deciding" (2007), Cambridge University Press
  7. Kassirer J, "Learning clinical reasoning" (2010), Wolters Kluwer Health
  8. Hall KH, "Reviewing intuitive decision-making and uncertainty : the implications for medical education", Med Educ, 36, pp.216~224 (2002)
  9. Kahneman D, "Prospect theory : an analysis of decision under risk", Econometrica, 47, pp.263~292 (1979)
  10. Berk JB, "The price is right, but are the bids?: an investigation of rational decision theory", Am Econ Rev, 86, pp.954~970 (1996)
  11. Elstein AS, "Clinical problem solving and diagnostic decision making : selective review of the cognitive literature", BMJ, 324, pp.729~732 (2002)
  12. Joseph GM, "Domain knowledge and hypothesis generation in diagnostic reasoning", Med Decis Making, 10, pp.31~46 (1990)
  13. Lesgold A, "The nature of expertise", pp.311~343 (1988), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
  14. Kushniruk AW, "Complex decision making in intensive care: role of medical expertise", pp.1998
  15. Hardman D, "Thinking: psychological perspectives on reasoning, judgment and decision making" (2003), John Wiley &Sons
  16. Philibert I, "Sleep loss and performance in residents and nonphysicians : a meta-analytic examination", Sleep, 28, pp.1392~1402 (2005)
  17. Klein G, "Naturalistic decision making", Hum Factors, 50, pp.456~460 (2008)
  18. Klein GA, "Decision models : some lessons from the field", IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybern, 21, pp.1018~1026 (1991)
  19. Leprohon J, "Decision-making strategies for telephone triage in emergency medical services", Med Decis Making, 15, pp.240~253 (1995)
  20. Norman G, "Non-analytical models of clinical reasoning : the role of experience", Med Educ, 41, pp.1140~1145 (2007)
  21. Eva KW, "What every teacher needs to know about clinical reasoning", Med Educ, 39, pp.98~106 (2005)
  22. Kunreuther H, "High stakes decision making: normative, descriptive and prescriptive considerations", Mark Lett, 13, pp.259~268 (2002)
  23. Kruglanski AW, "The freezing and unfreezing of lay-inferences:effects on impressional primacy, ethnic stereotyping, and numerical anchoring", J Exp Soc Psychol, 19, pp.448~468 (1983)
  24. Gilbert DT, "The trouble of thinking : activation and application of stereotypic beliefs", J Personal Soc Psychol, 60, pp.509~517 (1991)
  25. Hess TM, "Category-based versus attribute-based processing in different-aged adults", Aging Neuropsychol Cogn, 5, pp.27~42 (1998)
  26. Slovic P, "Heuristics and biases:the psychology of intuitive judgement", pp.397~421 (2002), Cambridge University Press
  27. Loewenstein GF, "Risk as feelings", Psychol Bull, 127, pp.267~286 (2001)
  28. Estrada CA, "Positive affect improves creative problem solving and influences reported source of practice satisfaction in physicians", Motiv Emot, 18, pp.285~299 (1994)
  29. Estrada CA, "Positive affect facilitates integration of information and decreases anchoring in reasoning among physicians", Organ Behav Hum Decis Process, 72, pp.117~135 (1997)
  30. Ryan RM, "Self-determination theory and the facilitation of intrinsic motivation, social development, and well-being", Am Psychol, 55, pp.68~78 (2000)
  31. Isen AM, "An influence of positive affect on decision making in complex situations : theoretical issues with practical implications", J Consum Psychol, 11, pp.75~85 (2001)
  32. Patel VL, "Cambridge handbook of thinking and reasoning", pp.727~750 (2005), Cambridge University Press
  33. Barrows HS, "The clinical reasoning of randomly selected physicians in general medical practice", Clin Invest Med, 5, pp.49~55 (1982)
  34. Johnston RL, "Dominant optic atrophy : refining the clinical diagnostic criteria in light of genetic linkage studies", Ophthalmology, 106, pp.123~128 (1999)
  35. Litvan I, "Movement Disorders Society Scientific Issues Committee report : SIC Task Force appraisal of clinical diagnostic criteria for Parkinsonian disorders", Mov Disord, 18, pp.467~486 (2003)
  36. Croskerry P, "The theory and practice of clinical decision-making", Can J Anesth, 52(Suppl 1), pp.R1~R8 (2005)
  37. "Language in clinical reasoning: learning and using the language of collective clinical decision making" (2006)[URL]
  38. Green L, "What alters physicians’ decisions to admit to the coronary care unit?", J Fam Pract, 45, pp.219~226 (1997)
  39. Fischer JE, "Use of simple heuristics to target macrolide prescription in children with community-acquired pneumonia", Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med, 156, pp.1005~1008 (2002)
  40. Custers EJ, "Mental representations of medical diagnostic knowledge: a review", Acad Med, 71(10 Suppl), pp.S55~S61 (1996)
  41. Elstein AS, "Heuristics and biases : selected errors in clinical reasoning", Acad Med, 74, pp.791~794 (1999)
  42. Woods NN, "Science is fundamental : the role of biomedical knowledge in clinical reasoning", Med Educ, 41, pp.1173~1177 (2007)
  43. Woods NN, "The value of basic science in clinical diagnosis", Acad Med, 81(10 Suppl), pp.S124~S127 (2006)
  44. Medin DL, "Given versus induced category representations : use of prototype and exemplar information in classification", J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn, 10, pp.333~352 (1984)
  45. Regehr G, "Effect of processing strategy on diagnostic skill in dermatology", Acad Med, 69(10 Suppl), pp.S34~S36 (1994)
  46. Hatala R, "Influence of a single example on subsequent electrocardiogram interpretation", Teach Learn Med, 11, pp.110~117 (1999)
  47. Eva KW, "The difficulty with experience: does practice increase susceptibility to premature closure?", J Contin Educ Health Prof, 26, pp.192~198 (2006)
  48. Evans JS., "Dual-processing accounts of reasoning, judgment, and social cognition", Annu Rev Psychol, 59, pp.255~278 (2008)
  49. Evans JS, "The heuristic-analytic theory of reasoning : extension and evaluation", Psychon Bull Rev, 13, pp.378~395 (2006)
  50. Higgs J, "Clinical reasoning in health professions", pp.3~18 (2008), Elsevier Butterworth-Heinemann
  51. Thierry Pelaccia, "An analysis of clinical reasoning through a recent and comprehensive approach: the dual-process theory", Medical Education Online, 16(1), pp.5890~ (2011), Informa UK Limited[DOI]
  52. Coderre S, "Diagnostic reasoning strategies and diagnostic success", Med Educ, 37, pp.695~703 (2003)
  53. Eva KW, "Teaching from the clinical reasoning literature : combined reasoning strategies help novice diagnosticians overcome misleading information", Med Educ, 41, pp.1152~1158 (2007)
  54. Balla JI, "A model for reflection for good clinical practice", J Eval Clin Pract, 15, pp.964~969 (2009)
  55. Balla J, "Clinical decision making in a high-risk primary care environment: a qualitative study in the UK", BMJ Open, 2, pp.e000414~ (2012)
  56. Glatter RD, "How emergency physicians think", Proceedings of the fourth Mediterranean Emergency Congress (MEMC IV) (2007), The European Society for Emergency Medicine
  57. Plous S., "The psychology of judgement and decision making" (1993), Temple University Press
  58. Graber M., "Metacognitive training to reduce diagnostic errors: ready for prime time?", Acad Med, 78, pp.781~ (2003)
  59. Croskerry P, "Cognitive forcing strategies in clinical decisionmaking", Ann Emerg Med, 41, pp.110~120 (2003)
  60. Croskerry P, "The importance of cognitive errors in diagnosis and strategies to minimize them", Acad Med, 78, pp.775~780 (2003)
  61. Croskerry P, "Clinical cognition and diagnostic error : applications of a dual process model of reasoning", Adv Health Sci Educ Theory Pract, 14(Suppl 1), pp.27~35 (2009)
  62. Croskerry P., "Patient safety in emergency medicine", pp.219~227 (2009), Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
  63. Flavell JH, "The nature of intelligence", pp.231~235 (1976), Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
  64. Marcum JA, "An integrated model of clinical reasoning : dual-process theory of cognition and metacognition", J Eval Clin Pract, 18, pp.954~961 (2012)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (11건)